Stat of the Day, 30th August 2016

Monday’s Result :

5.25 Epsom : Crowning Glory @ 4/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden out to beat Ripoll by a length and a quarter, comfortably enough in the end)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

7.00 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

A handicap debut now beckons for this 7 yr old gelding who won a maiden over 2m 0.5f at Bangor by 9 lengths last time out, 11 days ago. He was rated at 113 that day and even taking into consideration that his jockey had a 3lb claim there, today’s opening handicap mark of 114 might prove to be a little lenient.

Sam Twiston-Davies will ride for dad Nigel and Sam is in good nick. I saw him ride a near-15/1 double at Cartmel on Saturday and he always relishes riding for “the family”.

This time of year has become known as “Twister Season” in many quarters, but for those of you not familiar with it, it’s basically the right time of year for backing Nigel Twiston-Davies’ hurdlers.

What you need is a 5 to 10 yr old NTD-trained hurdler running in August/September/October and that’s it. Back them all since 1st August 2008 and you’ve 64 winners from 303 (21.1% SR) and a £20 stake on each would have made you £5186 profit at a very attractive 85.6% ROI.

If you don’t want 10-12 bets per month from just one angle in your portfolio, some sensible/logical filters include…

  • 5-8 yr olds, who are 60/273 (22%) for 254pts (+93%)
  • males are 55/250 (22%) for 236.2pts (+94.5%)
  • Class 4 runners are 38/149 (25.5%) for 246.1pts (+165.2%)
  • those ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies are 33/145 (22.8%) for 174.6pts (+120.4%)
  • and those competing over 1m 7.5f to 2m 0.5f are 18/65 (27.7%) for 42.4pts (+65.2%)

AND…5-8 yr old males ridden by Sam in a Class 4 race are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 160.5pts (+281.6% ROI)

And to be perfectly honest, that’s enough to be able to base a bet on, but I do like to give a little more where possible, so we could also look at the fate of Nigel’s handicap hurdlers turned back out with 30 days of a win and we see that since 2008, they are 21 from 115 (18.3% SR) for 36pts (+31.3% ROI).

Convinced now? Or do you need one more? Oh, go on then…Nigel Twiston-Davies’ NH handicap debutants are 29/159 (18.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+65.4% ROI) since the start of 2010 with hurdlers providing 25 of those winners from 139 efforts (18%), generating level stakes profits of 101.2pts at an ROI of 72.8%.

And of those 139 hurdling handicap debutants, Class 4 runners are 14/62 (22.6%) for 78pts (+125.8%), whilst those racing over 2m / 2m 0.5f are 6/21 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+259.5%) and that’s your lot for today…

…so, it’s time to place…a 1pt win bet on Moonday Sun at 11/4 BOG, with either Bet365 or Hills who jointly headed the market at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.00 Worcester.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

Your first 30 days for just £1
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