Stat of the Day, 31st August 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

7.00 Worcester : Moonday Sun @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8 (Held up in rear, not fluent 5th, went 3rd but a bit to do 3 out, soon closed, 2nd next, led last, ridden out to win by almost 3 lengths)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

7.50 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Ryan The Giant at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old gelding carries bottom weight here, receiving a healthy 9lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yo in a 3yo+ handicap and despite being a 15-race maiden, he is in fine form and currently producing the best performances of his career, finishing 3222 in his last 4 outings and never beaten by far, the latest being a defeat by just half a length at Musselburgh a week ago.

He has been knocking on the door over 1m4f and 1m6f and just not seeing it out, so the drop back in trip today could very well be the key to breaking his duck for trainer Keith Dalgleish, whose handicappers are 33/200 (16.5% SR) for 63.1pts (+31.6% ROI) here at Carlisle, from which…

  • those who raced in the last 10 weeks : 33/181 (18.2%) for 82.1pts (+45.4%)
  • males are 24/149 (16.1%) for 52.3pts (+35.1%)
  • in 3yo+ hcps : 20/111 (18%) for 45.2pts (+40.7%)
  • 3 yr olds : 15/64 (23.4%) for 74.5pts (+116.4%)
  • on Good ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 31pts (+55.3%)
  • 3 yr olds in 3yo+ hcps : 9/29 (31%) for 38.5pts (+132.9%)

Add to this the fact that since the start of the 2012 season in UK Flat handicaps, horses with three consecutive runner-up finishes finally went one better on 69 of 286 occasions (24.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 85 pts at an ROI of 29.7% and of those 286 runners…

  • those who last ran 4-60 days ago : 64/251 (25.5%) for 103pts (+41.1%)
  • over trips shorter than 10f : 58/211 (27.5%) for 105.7pts (+50.1%)
  • males : 48/198 (24.2%) for 76.5pts (+38.6%)
  • at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 51/175 (29.1%) for 72.6pts (+41.5%)
  • beaten by less than 1L LTO : 39/125 (31.2%) for 84.2pts (+67.3%)
  • dropping in trip by 0.5f to 3f : 15/63 (23.8%) for 32.3pts (+51.3%)

AND…Males priced at 15/8 to 7/1, dropping down by 0.5f to 3f some 4 to 60 days since their last run are 22/61 (36.1% SR) for 44.2pts (+72.5% ROI)

…which points to…a 1pt win bet on Ryan The Giant at 7/2 BOG, with either Betfair Sports or SkyBet who jointly headed the market at 6.15pm on Tuesday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.50 Carlisle.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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