Saturday’s Result :
2.45 Kempton : Lightning Charlie @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (In touch, headway over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, led well inside final furlong, headed post and beaten by a short head.) A frustrating end to the week with two narrowly defeated runners-up at 5/1 and then 6/1 at Kempton, but that’s life and now
Monday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Sirajiah at 9/2 BOG
This 3 yr old filly was a runner-up in both her races as a 2 yr old and has suffered the same fate in all three starts this term, giving her an unusual form line that reads 22222, making her frustrating and expensive to follow in equal measures, but being allocated a mark of 72 for her handicap debut gives her an ideal opportunity to bring her duck today.
You see, her latest defeat four weeks ago was byjust a length here at Windsor, when coming home behind May Rose, who herself has since made a winning handicap debut off a mark of 74 and is now rated 78, so if Sirajiah can repeat the last of her last performance, that should be enough here.
Her jockey today is Pat Cosgrave and he’s in good nick, winning 9 of 36 rides (25% SR) over the last fortnight, whilst trainer William Haggas is also in great form with 10 winners and 9 placers from his 28 runners over the last week (35.7% won, 67.9% in the frame).
And in Flat handicaps at odds of 10/1 and shorter, the Haggas runners are 155/613 (25.3% SR) for 88.6pts (+14.5% ROI) over the last five seasons, with the following of note/interest today…
- those last seen 6-60 days ago are 130/506 (25.7%) for 76pts (+15%)
- those with a top 2 finish LTO are 94/316 (29.7%) for 53pts (+16.8%)
- at Class 5 : 22/71 (31%) for 11.9pts (+16.7%)
- here at Windsor : 6/21 (28.6%) for 2.4pts (+11.4%)
In addition to the above data, it’s also worth noting that William’s 2 to 4 yr old Flat handicap debutants priced at Evens to 15/2 are 59/204 (28.9% SR) for 49.2pts (+24.1% ROI) since the start of the 2010 campaign, of which…
- 3 yr olds are 52/169 (30.8%) for 49.3pts (+29.2%)
- those in the top 3 LTO : 51/165 (30.9%) for 55.1pts (+33.4%)
- females are 29/83 (34.9%) for 38.6pts (+46.4%)
- those up in trip by 0.5f/1f are 28/77 (36.4%) for 57.7pts (+75%)
- 3 yo females with a top finish LTO are 20/50 (40%) for 28.24pts (+56.5%)
- and 3 yo females with a top finish LTO up in trip by 0.5f/1f are 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 6.93pts at an ROI of 40.8%
And referring back to that unusual form line of Sirajiah…in UK Flat handicaps over the last five seasons, horses with runner-up finishes in each of their last three runs (ie 222) finally won on 69 of 287 occasions (24% SR) for profits of 84 pts (+29.3% ROI) and that sample size includes…
- 56 from 22 (25.2%) for 95.2pts (+42.9%) from those running 4-30 dslr
- 51/176 (29%) for 71.6pts (+40.7%) from those priced at 15/8 to 7/1
- 39/126 (31%) for 83.2pts (+66%) from those beaten by a length or less LTO
- 28/84 (33.3%) for 36.73pts (+43.7%) at Class 5
- and 3 winners from 9 (33.3% SR) and 9.3pts (+103.4% ROI) profit here at Windsor
…all of which points to…a 1pt win bet on Sirajiah at 9/2 BOG with any of the dozen or so firms all offering the same odds at 8.50pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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