Stat of the Day, 6th September 2016

Monday’s Result :

2.50 Windsor : Sirajiah @ 9/2 BOG WON at 4/1 (Towards rear, headway halfway to chase leaders, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by half a length in the end.)

It was only when I was compiling the review of last week’s efforts (that review is here, in case you missed it), that I realised that Sirajiah was our 1500th SotD selection, so a 9/2 winner was a lovely way to hit that milestone. We now set sail towards 2000 picks, as…

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

2.40 Worcester:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Kinari at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Bowen’s yard is showing the early signs of springing into action in advance of the “proper” NH season with two winners from their last 8 runners and three winners from their last six chase contests with jockey Sean Bowen being 2/7 and 3/5 from those two sets of runners.

The above augurs well for a yard that has already had 17 winners from 72 (23.6% SR) for 31.2pts (+43.3% ROI) profit here at Worcester since the start of 2013, with the following of both relevance and interest today…

  • those with a top 4 finish LTO : 13/49 (26.5%) for 39.2pts (+80%)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter : 15/48 (31.25%) for 11.44pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground : 10/45 (22.2%) for 39.1pts (+86.9%)
  • chasers : 7/32 (21.9%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%)
  • hcp chasers : 6/28 (21.4%) for 24.9pts (+88.8%)
  • and over this 2m4f trip : 4/19 (21.1%) for 20.3pts (+106.6%)

In additon to the above, Kinari is also Peter’s only runner of the day and in the past (since 2008, anyway!) such solo runners are 72/502 (14.3% SR) for 84.8pts (+16.9% ROI) with those returning from a break of 21 to 60 days winning 31 of 241 (+12.9%) for 52.1pts (+21.6%).

The above sets of data don’t shout “5/1 shot” to me, so I think we could nick a point or more above SP here, especially when you consider the horse’s own credentials and suitability for the task in hand.

This 6 yr old gelding’s last 4 runs have resulted in a sequence reading 1112, all over fences and it’s highly likely that the last of those runs was just one race too many as his sixth outing in just 73 days. He has now had 58 days to get over the exertions and a drop in trip allied with a 2lb easing of his mark by the assessor must give him a fighting chance of a fourth win in 11 starts over fences.

And of his current 3/10 record in chase contests, he has achieved the following…

  • 3/7 at 6/1 or shorter
  • 3/7 at the age of 6
  • 2/7 under Sean Bowen
  • 3/6 in a tongue tie
  • 3/5 on good ground
  • 3/4 wearing a visor
  • 2/4 in these low prize money Class 4 contests
  • 1/2 here at Worcester
  • and despite never running at 2m4f, he did win his only race at 2m 5f by some 4.5 lengths four starts ago when winning for the first time over fences.

…all of which gives us…a 1pt win bet on Kinari at 5/1 BOG with any one of the seven firms all offering the same odds at 6.45pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Worcester.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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