Stat of the Day, 12th September 2016

Saturday’s Result :

3.50 Bath : Whip Nae Nae @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace behind the very short priced jolly)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

4.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Satish at 3/1 BOG


We’ve an in-form trainer and jockey, both with good records at this venue, so let’s start with the jockey, a certain Lanfranco Dettori, or Frankie to his mates!

The guy is riding as well as ever and has scored 5 times from 15 rides in the past 7 days. Now, he might well be known for his 500+ Group race victories, but he also has a decent strike rate here on the A/W track at Kempton, via 53 winners from 188 (218.2% SR) since 2009.

And now to the “gaffer”, John(ny) Gosden, a perennial success story having another purple patch of late with 7 winners from 19 in the last week alone and he, too, fares well here by the Thames with 106 winners from 523 runners (20.3% SR) for admittedly modest profits of 16.54pts at an ROI of 3.2%. Mind you, that’s from blindly backing all his runners here, but under today’s conditions…

  • non-hcps : 77/354 (21.75%) for 36.25pts (+10.24%)
  • in maidens : 70/319 (21.9%) for 52.8pts (+16.5%)
  • males are 68/289 (23.5%) for 79.8pts (+27.6%)
  • and since the start of 2015 : 19/68 (27.9%) for 44.8pts (+65.8%)

Males in maidens are 39/142 (27.5% SR) for 76.2pts (+53.7% ROI), of which 2015/16’s tally is 7/23 (30.4%) for 11.92pts (+51.8%).

We should also remember that Mr Gosden enjoys plenty of success at this specific mile and a half trip and backing all of his runners over 1m4f since the start of 2008 gives you 7 profitable years from 8 with the exception being a mere 8.47pts loss from an overall record that stands at 132/552 (23.9% SR) for profits of 172.9pts at an ROI of 31.3% and those runners are 18/56 (32.1%) for 47.26pts (+84.4%) this year.

And of those original 552 runners over 1m4f, those running in non-handicap contests are 94/378 (24.9%) for 133.8pts (+35.4%), of which…
…maiden races : 57/183 (31.2%) for 66.2pts (+36.2%), from which…
…in 2016 : 13/28 (46.4%) for 44.2pts (+157.9%), of which…
…A/W runners are 10/17 (58.8%) for 7.82pts (+46%), from which…
…those racing here at Kempton are 3/5 (60%) for 0.19pts (+3.7%)…

…suggesting…a 1pt win bet on Satish at 3/1 BOG, from Bet365 who led the way at 9.45pm on Sunday with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Kempton.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard…

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