Stat of the Day, 15th September 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

5.35 Yarmouth : Highly Strung @ 11/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (In touch, outpaced halfway, headway on outer over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win cosily by 5 lengths.)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

5.30 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Valley of Fire at 4/1 BOG

Why?

We had the winner of the last race at Yarmouth at a nice price on Wednesday and here’s why I’m trying to repeat that feat on Thursday!

Firstly, I’m happy to ignore the fact that Valley of Fire has only won twice in 14 attempts, as he has at least won at this class and and this trip an on good to firm ground and was a winner of a tougher race than this last time out at Haydock 13 days ago. he’s only up 3lbs for that win and with both his yard and his jockey being independently in good form and both having good records here, I fancy him to go in again.

He’s trained by William Haggas who, prior to Wednesday’s return of 2 winners and 2 runners-up from 5 runners, had a 7-day record of 10 winners from 22 (45.5% SR) and a 14-day record of 21 from 50 (42% SR).

Mr Haggas was also 25 from 70 (35.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+42.8% ROI) here at Yarmouth since 2013, but that doesn’t actually include those 2 winners from 3 on Wednesday, so his figures are actually better than I’m quoting!

Of the pre-Wednesday 70 runners…

  • handicappers are 14/32 (43.8%) for 27.9pts (+87.3%)
  • males are 13/31 (41.9%) for 23.9pts (+77.2%)
  • LTO winners are 5/10 (50%) for 5.95pts (+59.5%)
  • and those racing over this 7f trip are 6/8 (75%) for 29.95pts (+374.4%)

In addition to those excellent numbers, jockey Pat Cosgrave is also going rather well. A shade unlucky, perhaps, to have finished as a runner-up in each of three rides on Wednesday, but had won 9 of his 36 rides (25% SR) in the previous fortnight and his own record here at Yarmouth stacks up well with 22 winners from 125 (16.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 141pts at an ROI of 104.4%.

…and that’s why, it’s…a 1pt win bet on Valley of Fire at 4/1 BOG, which was available in at least 10 places at 7.10pm on Wednesday, so to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Yarmouth.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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