Stat of the Day, 20th September 2016

Monday’s Result :

4.40 Kempton : Seychelloise @ 5/1 BOG WON at 12/1 (Smartly ridden, quick away and sharply across to grab the rail despite being drawn 12 of 12! Made all, ridden over 1f out, held on well to win by three quarters of a length.)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ralphy Boy at 4/1 BOG

Why?

Ralphy Boy has already won 9 times on the Flat (from 57 efforts at a strike rate of 15.8%), rewarding his followers with level stakes profits of 15.6pts at a return of 27.4% above stakes invested. Horses like this are to be kept an eye on, as they’ll provide steady profits for you.

I’m even more interssted by his record under similar conditions to day, as from that 9/57 record, he is…

  • 9/52 (17.3%) for 20.6pts (+39.6%) over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs (7.5f today)
  • 9/50 (18%) for 22.6pts (+45.2%) in the May to September period
  • 8/47 (17%) for 20.6pts running within 30 days of his last run (11 this time and his other win was on debut)
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 29.1pts (+111.7%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 1.3pts (+10%) here in Yorkshire
  • and 4 from 12 (33.3%) for 18.7pts (+155.8%) at Class 5

Ralphy Boy / 5f to 1m / May to September / 1-30 dslr / 8-1 and shorter = 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 31pts (+163.1% ROI) and of these 19 runs, he is 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.64pts (+266.3%) at Class 5 and 2/3 for 6.24pts here in Yorkshire.

He now takes a drop in class after a 2.5 length defeat, 11 days ago, at Chester behind Classic Seniority, whose own reappearance was good enough to land the Class 2 Ayr Bronze Cup last Friday off a mark of 85. This suggests that should our lad reproduce that Chester run, we’re in with a great shout, especially dropping into Class 5.

This feeling is exacerbated by trainer Alistair Whillans’ record in handicaps when dropping horses down a grade with 22 winners from 154 such horses (14.3% SR) since the start of 2010, that have produced level stakes profits of 61.6pts at an ROI of 40%.

Of these 154 runners…

  • those with a run on the last 30 days are 18/113 (15.9%) for 70.7pts (+62.6%)
  • those racing over 6 to 10.5 furlongs are 19/111 (17.1%) for 58.9pts (+53.1%)
  • males are 13/102 (12.75%) for 45pts (+44.1%)
  • on good ground : 10/52 (19.2%) for 34.9pts (+67.2%)
  • and those beaten by 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 10.06pts (+62.9%)

Alistair Whillans’ male handicappers dropping down a grade to run 6f t0 10.5f within 30 days of their last run are 8/48 (16.7% SR) for 37pts (+77.1% ROI), of which those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 7/30 (23.3%) for 35.7pts (+118.9%) with these price-restricted runners winning 5 of 12 (41.7%) races on good ground for profits of 23.1pts (+192.3%)

…whih gives us…a 1pt win bet on Ralphy Boy at 4/1 BOG, which was available from Hills and BetVictor at 6.00pm on Monday and to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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