Wednesday’s Result :
2.35 Goodwood : Admiralty Arch @ 11/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Always struggling in rear and last home, around 17 L off the pace!)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
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Highly Sprung at 4/1 BOG
Three wins and 2 places from this 3 yr old’s last six outings, including a very comfortable 5 length success at Yarmouth 8 days ago. His wide draw and penalty will make life tougher, but odds of 4/1 BOG about a horse who is still 4lbs well in and clearly thriving are almost impossible to ignore (and we proved earlier in the week that a wide draw isn’t necessarily a killer).
He does get a useful 2lbs weight for age allowance against these older horses and his recent form over 6 furlongs is excellent at 12131. He has finished 2131 in the last four outings under Silvestre de Sousa, he has won 2 of 3 (211) Class 4 contests, 1 of 2 (21) over this course and distance and has a records of 4 from 10 at odds of 13/8 to 4/1.
So, I’m happy with the race conditions being suitable and I’m more buoyed by the fact that trainer and jockey both have good strike rates at this Yorkshire venue, but more interestingly they do very well together with 20 winners from 71 (28.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 31.5pts at an ROI of 44.4%.
The horse’s form & stats allied to that trainer/jockey record would be enough for me here to be honest, but further reassurance is found when a closer look at those 71 Johnston/De Sousa match-ups shows that…
- males are 18/52 (34.6%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
- 3 yr olds are 14/40 (35%) for 43.4pts (+108.5%)
- those who last ran 4 to 15 days ago are 15/36 (41.7%) for 47.5pts (+131.9%)
AND…I’ll sign off on this one, by telling you that Mark Johnston / Silvestre de Sousa / 3 yr old males / Pontefract / 4 to 15 days since their last run = 10/17 (58.8% ROI) for profits of 51.9pts (+305.2% ROI).
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Highly Sprung at 4/1 BOG, which was available from Hills, BetVictor, Paddy Power and/or Ladbrokes at 6.35pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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