Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2016

Thursday’s Result :

5.40 Pontefract : Highly Sprung @ 11/2 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, no impression over 1f out, weakened entering final furlong)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.15 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Miss Crick at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is in fine form at present with three wins and a runner-up finish from her last four efforts over hurdles (1121) and she’s well suited by conditions here, as she’s 3 from 4 under today’s jockey Wayne Hutchinson, she’s 3/5 going left handed, she’s 1 from 1 at this track, 1 from at Class 3 and although this is her first crack at 2m4f, she is 1 from 1 at 2m3f.

In addition to those details, jockey Wayne is 5 from 21 (23.8% SR) here at Worcester since 2013 when riding for Alan King, including 3 wins from 9 (33.3% SR) for 70.6pts (+78.5% ROI) over hurdles, including a win on Miss Crick here back in May of this year.

And if her own stats and those of the trainer/jockey aren’t quite enough to persuade you, then a quick look at her breeding might. She’s one of many offspring of one of my favourite sires, the recently departed Midnight Legend, about whom there are a myriad of profitable angles to follow, but the one I’m going to share here is very simple indeed…

Midnight Legend offspring / Class 3 hcp hurdles / 2009 onwards = 35/160 (21.9% SR) for 190.8pts  profit at a whopping ROI of 119.3%.

And of those 160 runners…

  • those who last ran 11-90 days ago are 30/125 (24%) for 169.5pts (+135.6%)
  • those racing over 2m1f to 3m are 29/110 (26.4%) for 194pts (+176.4%)
  • females are 19/75 (25.3%) for 136.5pts (+182%)
  • 5 yr olds are 7/33 (21.2%) for 42.6pts (+129.1%)

and females racing over 2m1f to 3m, 11-90 dslr are 13/47 (27.7% SR) for 120.4pts (+256.2% ROI).

…resulting in…a 1pt win bet on Miss Crick at 4/1 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfair Sports and/or BetVictor at 5.25pm on Thursday (it was 5/1 at 5.20!), but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Worcester.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *