Race of the Day – 17:25 Hamilton
This is a 0-70 handicap over one and a half miles, and due to the recent poor weather in the area, the official going is heavy.
Rocktherunway is at the top of the official ratings and is also joint top of the Speed Ratings. Ten stone could be a big enough weight to carry through these conditions however.
Nothing shows up particularly well on the Instant Expert tab, however it is worth noting that both Qibtee and Young Tom are the only horses to have won on today’s going. For me this takes on even more importance when the conditions are this extreme.
Qibtee is also three pounds lower than his last victory, which incidentally was last autumn on heavy going.
From looking at the Pace tab it’s clear that there isn’t a huge advantage for horses that lead in today’s conditions. They do have a green tab but a win rate of 13.33% isn’t hugely impressive and not something to bank on, especially as there are three horses with the same pace score who may well be fighting each other for the lead and set it up for a held up horse. This is ever more likely given the conditions underfoot.
From the trainer snippets report we can see that Michael Dods has a pretty reasonable record with staying horses on the flat, even to give him a positive win P/L of 18.75 to level stakes.
All in all I think this is a tough race to make a firm choice, and not one that I would be having a bet in, especially given the conditions. There are plenty of other races to go at today, and it is important to keep the discipline and not get involved for the sake of it.
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