Monday’s Result :
4.00 Newton Abbot : Polo The Mumm @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Mid-division, closed on inside 7th, pushed along 8th, outpaced from next, no impression on leaders after)
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Kamool at 5/1 BOG
This 6yr old gelding was a pretty comfortable course and distance winner by 4 lengths on hios last outing, five weeks ago and although he’s up 9lbs for that run, today’s jockey takes care of 6lbs via his claim, making Kamool still potentially well handicapped.
The win LTO was only his second crack at this 3m trip (he was runner-up first time around) and it was also his first run here at Southwell, so conditions aren’t exactly alien to him either, as he comes here as Graeme McPherson’s only runner of day seeking to improve his yard’s already-decent record at this track…
…as Graeme’s runners are 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 113.9pts (+223.3% ROI) and if we discard his six A/W runners here, we’re left with an NH record of 9/45 (20% SR) for 113.4pts (+251.9% ROI) with those returning from a break of 21 to 75 days winning 7 of 14 (50%) for 41.9pts (+299.4%).
In additon to the trainer/horse stats, a general stat about handicap hurdlers is very valid here, as since 2012, handicap hurdlers who have a previous win over course and distance and also won (anywhere, any trip) LTO are 210/970 (21.7% SR) for 180.1pts (+18.6% ROI), with a consistent set of strike rates under today’s conditions, such as…
- 26.6% at odds of 13/2 and shorter (179 from 673)
- 25.6% won by 2 to 15 lengths LTO (126/493)
- 24.2% by 6 yr olds (58/240)
- 22.8% from LTO C&D winners (154/677)
- 22.2% from those those last seen within 60 days (194/875)
- 22.2% from males (177/799)
- 21.6% at Class 4 (68/315)
- and 20.6% here at Southwell (7/34)
AND a micro from the above? Go on, then, we’ve not done a composite for a while, so here goes…
…2012-16 / hcp hurdles / former C&D winner / also won LTO / 6yo / male / Class 3 to 5 / 11+dslr / won by 1-15L LTO / now priced below 7-1 = 64/209 (30.6% SR) for 78.7pts (+27.7% ROI), with those running here at Southwell winning 3 of 9 (33.3%) for 2.5pts (+27.8%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Kamool at 5/1 BOG, which was available from Betfair Sports, BetVictor and/or SkyBet at 6.05pm on Monday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS