Stat of the Day, 29th September 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

3.10 Bangor : Germany Calling @ 7/2 BOG (9/4 after R4) WON at 6/4 (Made all, jumped right, not fluent 3rd, driven clear flat to win by 5 lengths relatively comfortably)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

4.55 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Soundstrings at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This lightly raced 3 yr old has one win and two runner-up finishes from her five starts to date and shed her maiden tag two runs ago, when scoring at Catterick at this trip and in this grade. She ran well last time out, but could only finish fourth, having faded away in the final furlong after stepping up in both trip and class.

The assessor has dropped her 3lbs for today and this allied to the drop back in trip and class to match her winning run, suggests she could be very well handicapped if coping with the Tapeta for the first time.

Graham Gibbons rode her for those last two runs and he retains the ride for a yard that has been absolutely flying of late, as William Haggas’ runners are 34/102 (33.3% SR) for 35.7pts (+35% ROI) over the last month, including the following of relevance to today’s contest…

  • over 6 to 8.5 furlongs : 24/66 (36.4%) for 44.3pts (+67.2%)
  • 3 yr olds : 20/50 (40%) for 13.2pts (+26.4%)
  • handicappers : 17/46 (37%) for 21.8pts (+47.3%)
  • females are 15/45 (33.3%) for 20.6pts (+45.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 13/26 (50%) for 10.3pts (+39.6%)
  • and on the A/W : 7/16 (43.75%) for 11.32pts (+70.8%)

Moreover, the Haggas string are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 11.2pts (+43% ROI) profits from all races on the Tapeta when priced at 2/1 to 5/1, with Class 5 runners winning 6 of 16 (37.5%) for 11pts (+69%).

And on top of all the above compelling data, Soundstrings also finds herself as a qualifier of one of my micro-systems!

ie A/W / 3-5 yr olds / won 2 starts ago / 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO 16-60 days ago / now down 1 class. Such runners are 37/164 (22.6% SR) for 74.5pts (+45.5% ROI) since the start of 2012 and once again, with today’s contest firmly in mind…

  • handicappers are 33/142 (23.2%) for 78.3pts (+55.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 18/81 (22.2%) for 31.8pts (+39.2%)
  • females are 13/60 (21.7%) for 26pts (+43.4%)
  • at Class 5 : 14/58 (24.1%) for 29.2pts (+50.3%)
  • finished 4th LTO : 12/57 (21.1%) for 30.4pts (+53.3%)
  • 16-20 days since last run : 12/48 (25%) for 42pts (+87.4%)
  • and those beaten by 4 to 10 lengths LTO are 12/45 (26.7%) for 51.3pts (+114%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Soundstrings at 7/2 BOG, which was offered by market leader Bet365 at 6.35pm on Wednesday and was still available at 8.45pm. There were also several cases of 100/30 BOG available too, so to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.55 Newcastle.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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