Stat of the Day, 30th September 2016

Thursday’s Result :

4.55 Newcastle : Soundstrings @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, soon led, ran on well to win by almost 2 lengths)

Friday’s pick is the last of another profitable month and it goes in the…

8.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Oriental Relation at 6/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer James Given’s runners are 81/561 (14.4% SR) for 115.4pts (+20.6% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since the start of 2011, which is decent enough, but closer inspection of those figures throws out the following snippets of relevant data…

  • those with a run in the past 30 days are 72/450 (16%) for 153.4pts (+34.1%)
  • males are 70/72 (16.7%) for 136.4pts (+32.5%)
  • those in the top 3 of the market are 52/204 (25.5%) for 19.5% (+9.5%)
  • those ridden by Tom Eaves are 20/139 (14.4$ for 28pts (+20.2%)
  • those racing over this 5f minimum trip are 22/1212 (18.2%) for 75pts (+62%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 13/94 (13.8%) for 46pts (+49%)

Puting the more prevalent factors together tells us that males who are in the top 3 of the market and ran in the previous 30 days are 46 from 170 (27.1% SR) for 34.1pts (+20.1% ROI) profit, of which…

  • 5f runners are 13/42 (31%) for 8.4pts (+20%)
  • Tom Eaves is 13/40 (32.5%) for 21.3pts (+53.3%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 6/28 (21.4%) for 4.25pts (+15.2%)

All of which suggest that any James Given runner fitting the above stats is worth backing and I could really just stop there, but sometimes I just can’t help myself, so I then thought I’d check the horse out a little more closely and here’s what I found…

Oriental Relation is 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13pts (+76.5% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 races on the All-Weather, which is really good going, and of those 17 efforts, he is…

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 11.38pts (+71.2%) in handicaps
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 17pts (+130.8%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.32pts (+79.4%) since the start of 2015
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.93pts (+132.5%) ridden by Tom Eaves
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.19pts (+159.9%) over 5 furlongs
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.19 pts when racing 11 to 20 days since his last outing

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Oriental Relation at 6/1 BOG, which was offered in a dozen separate places at 7.35pm on Thursday and was still widely available at 11.10pm, so to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.50 Newcastle.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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