Stat of the Day, 1st October 2016

Friday’s Result :

8.50 Newcastle : Oriental Relation @ 6/1 BOG 7th at 13/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

3.05 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Mehronissa at 9/1 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly comes here in good form, having finished 121134134 in her last nine outings and she’s 6 from 12 on the Flat so far. She’s 5/9 over this 6f trip, 5/8 under Freddie Tylicki and has finished 131 in her three starts on good ground, so she should be well suited by today’s conditions.

She might well have been beaten by the thick end of 5 lengths into 4th place last time out, but there are excuses to be found. She was quite poorly treated at the weights, she now gets weight all round. That was a Group 1, this is Group 3. She didn’t get the soft ground LTO and now runs on a surface more to her liking.

Will all that be enough? Who knows, but at 9/1 BOG, it’s certainly worth chancing in my opinion, especially as…

…since the start of the 2012 season, 3-5 yr olds who won two starts ago and then placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO, 16-60 days ago are 291 /1637 (17.8% SR) for 370.2pts (+22.6% ROI) on the Flat, from which…

  • those who last ran 21-30 days back are 134/657 (20.4%) for 294.4pts (+44.8%)
  • females are 114/596 (19.1%) for 184.2pts (+30.9%)
  • 4 yr olds are 70/393 (17.8%) for 96.4pts (+24.5%)
  • non-handicap races : 56/294 (19.1%) for 97.2pts (+33.1%)
  • at Class 1 : 37/189 (19.6%) for 116.8pts (+61.8%)
  • and in Group 3 races : 14/71 (19.7%) for 40.3pts (+56.8%)

…leading to… a 1pt win bet on Mehronissa at 9/1 BOG, which was offered by a handful of bookies at 11.05pm on Friday, so to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ascot.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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