Stat of the Day, 4th October 2016

Monday’s Result :

4.10 Southwell : Gaelic Myth @ 100/30 BOG PU at 5/2 (Jumped right, but led until going wrong and being quickly pulled up before 8th)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

5.10 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Virile at 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of the 2013 campaign, Sylvester Kirk’s runners are 10/53 (18.9% SR) for 18.9pts (+35.7% ROI) here at Brighton, of which…

  • those who last ran 4 to 45 days ago are 10/43 (23.3%) for 28.9pts (+67.3%)
  • males are 7/29 (24.1%) for 31.6pts (+109%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.16pts (+202%)
  • and under jockey Mitch Godwin : 2/3 (66.7%) for 15.82pts (+527.2%)

And fitting the above bill today is Virile, a 5yr old gelding who has two wins and a place to his name from his last outings, including a course and distance win here at Brighton when last seen just five days ago. He’s up 6lbs for than win, but his jockey’s 5lb claim negates most of that and he has won with today’s rider in the past.

Virile has three career wins to date, all at Class 6, all in the August-October period, all going left handed, all wearing blinkers and all priced at 5/1 or shorter. Two of his wins have come after a break of less than a week and he also has two wins at this 6f trip, two wins wearing a tongue tie and he’s 1 from 1 here at this venue.

Virile/ Class 6 / August-October / Left handed / Blinkers / 5-1 max = 3/6 (50% SR) for 3.3pts (+55% ROI), from which

  • tongue tie : 2/4 (50%) for 3.27pts (+81.75%)
  • over 6f : 2/3 (66/7%) for 4.27pts (+142.3%)
  • 2-5 dslr : 2/3 (66.7%) for 0.96pts (+32%)

Plus he also fits another of my stock of microsystems, which isn’t as complicated in practice as it looks in print, but basically…

UK / Flat / 2011-16 / Evens to 5-1 / OR : same or up to 7lbs hiher than LTO / Same Class or up 1 level / Same trip or up by 0.5f or down by up to 1.5f / at least 1 previous win at the distance / Won LTO 1-5 dslr (and breathe!)

Such horses are 86/237 (36.3% SR) for 82.1pts (+34.6% ROI) and with today’s contest in consideration, those 237 runners include the following data…

  • handicaps : 83/230 (36.1%) for 80.2pts (+34.9%)
  • same trip as LTO : 63/189 (33.3%) for 42.3pts (+22.4%)
  • up 6lbs from LTO : 60/173 (34.7%) for 43.4pts (+25.1%)
  • same class as LTO : 59/155 (38.1%) for 57.8pts (+37.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/74 (39.2%) for 23.1pts (+31.2%)
  • here at Brighton : 5/9 (55.6%) for 5.76pts (+64%)

AND…hcps / up 6lbs / same class & trip as LTO = 31/89 (34.8% SR) for 18.4pts at an ROI of 20.6%, from which Class 6 runners are 17/43 (39.5%) for 13.1pts (+30.5%) and those who were C&D winners LTO are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.48pts (+105.3%)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Virile at 9/2 from Betway, who are non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG, which was offered by both Betfair Sports and SkyBet at 5.50pm on Monnday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.10 Brighton.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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