Stat of the Day, 6th October 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

2.40 Ludlow : Templehills @ 11/4 BOG (6/4 after 45p R4!) WON at 8/11 (Jumped left at times, tracked leader, led 2nd, not fluent 4 out, clear from 2 out, not fluent last, stayed on well to win by five lengths.)

And whilst 6/4 isn’t the best return we’ll ever get, it does show there’s still value to be had at the sharp end of the market, as our 6/4 represented more than double the SP returns.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

3.40 Hereford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Satanic Beat at 6/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Phil Middleton’s NH handicappers are 33/221 (14.9% SR) for 37.7pts (+17.% ROI) since the start of 2011, and Satanic Beat is of particular interest today, because, of those 221 runners…

  • those racing over the 2m trip or shorter are 9/55 (16.4%) for 77pts (+14%)
  • those who ran just 6 to 10 days earlier are 9/36 (25%) for 16.04pts (+44.5%)
  • whilst those who were runners-up LTO are 11/31 (35.5%) for 32.8pts (+105.9%)

In other words, keep an eye for Phil’s runners-up quickly turned out over short distances.

We also need to be on the ball for him running NH handicappers coming off a losing streak to win off a lower mark than their last win. More specifically, since 2012, those with 5 or more consecutive defeats behind and then run at a lower mark than their previous win are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 20.06pts (+111.4% ROI) when sent off at 8/1 and shorter. Admittedly, they’re few and far between, but need backing when spotted.

The final piece of the Satanic Beat statistical jigsaw comes via the fact that since the start of 2013, Class4 handicap hurdlers, aged 5 to 7, turned back out just 1 to 7 days after a top 4 finish LTO are 117/348 (33.6% SR) for 66.4pts (+19.1% ROI), a ploy particularly successful in the months leading up to the NH season proper, as those running in the July to October period are 37/103 (35.9% SR) for 36.5pts (+35.5% ROI)

…all of which points to…a 1pt win bet on Satanic Beat at 6/1 BOG, which was offered in a half dozen or so places at 5.50pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.40 Hereford.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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