Stat of the Day, 12th October 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

9.15 Wolverhampton : Mrs Burbidge @ 3/1 BOG still to run (Result/report to follow)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dubka at 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly gets a very useful 9lbs weight allowance here as she bids for a 5-timer in only her sixth outing. She was outpaced on debut, finishing 6th over an inadequately short 1m2f, before rattling up four wins at 1m4f. She finished very strongly last time, winning comfortably by more than three lengths, suggesting this step up in trip should suit her.

She’s 1 from 1 under Ryan Moore, who rode her to victory three starts ago and Ryan has won 28 of his 113 (24.8% SR) rides in Listed contests for Sir Michael Stoute since 2009, generating level stakes profits of 14.6pts (+12.9% ROI) along the way.

And of those 113 rides, he is…

  • 23/64 (35.9%) for 10.9pts (+17%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 19/64 (29.7%) for 15.4pts (+24.1%) on 3 yr olds
  • 16/52 (30.8%) for 37.9pts (+72.9%) on those returning from a break of 16 to 45 days
  • and 11/32 (34.4%) for 5.13pts (+16%) on LTO winners.

Meanwhile, over the last two seasons, Sir Michael’s runners racing over trips of 1m4f and beyond on the Flat are 36/145 (24.8%) for 68pts (+46.9%), from which…

  • 3 yr olds are 24/104 (23.1%) for 28.5pts (+27.4%)
  • non-handicap races : 25/92 (27.2%) for 51.5pts (+56%)
  • on good to firm : 22/71 (31%) for 46.7pts (+65.8%)
  • at Class 1 : 15/56 (26.8%)) for 26.5pts (+47.3%)
  • LTO winners : 12/50 (24%) for 13.9pts (+27.8%)

And the final reason wny I think she’ll get the extra distance today is the fact that her “dad” is none other than Dubawi, whose offspring are currently 764/4344 (17.6% SR) for 754pts at an ROI of 17.4%, which are staggering numbers really.

Of those 4344 runners, those racing over 1m2f to 2m on the Flat are 190/927 (20.5%) for 456.5pts (+49.2%), with a record of 45/186 (24.2%) for 182.9pts (+98.3%) at Class1 with 18 winners from 69 (26.1% SR) for 68.7pts (+99.6% ROI) in Listed contests.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Dubka at 5/2 BOG, from any one of the half dozen or so firms quoting the same price at 6.55pm on Tuesday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.40 Bath.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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