Stat of the Day, 13th October 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

3.40 Bath : Dubka @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 6/4 (Took keen hold in mid-division, stayed on inside in straight, pushed along chasing leaders over 3f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, no impression on leading trio near side, weakened into 5th towards finish)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

5.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Baysbrown at 100/30 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 3221 in his last four runs and was a winner at this grade/trip when last seen at Perth 37 days ago.

He is trained by Nicky Richards, whose record here at Carlisle stands at 29 winners from 126 (23% SR) runners since 2008 for level stakes profits of 64.8pts, accrued at an ROI of 51.5% and of these 126 runners…

  • handicap races : 16/70 (22.9%) for 56.6pts (+80.9%)
  • hurdle races  15/50 (30%) for 79.4pts (+158.8%)
  • hcp hurdles : 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.9pts (+228.2%)
  • and Class 4 hcp hurdles : 6/17 (35.5%) for 43.9pts (+258%)

On top of that, male hcp hurdlers / aged 4-8 / OR of 81-130 / carrying 9-13 to 10-13 / LTO winner of hcp hurdle / 3-60 dslr = 200/1021 (19.6% SR) for 111.2pts (+10.9% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which…

  • those who won by 1 to 15 lengths LTO are 154/731 (21.1%) for 144.9pts (+19.8%)
  • those now carrying 10-11 to 10-13 are 71/344 (20.6%) for 71pts (+20.6%)
  • and those now carrying 10-11 to 10-13 who won by 1 to 15 lengths LTO are 55/250 (22% SR) for 93pts (+37.2% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Baysbrown at 10/3 BOG, from SkyBet who led the market at 6.55pm on Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Carlisle.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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