Stat of the Day, 15th October 2016

Friday’s Result :

2.40 Fakenham : Alyasan @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Led, ridden 3 out, headed bend approaching last, kept on one pace)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

4.10 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Tommy Silver at 7/2 BOG


Trainer Paul Nicholls targets this race, having won the last two renewals and it clearly is a target as he’s only ever had 6 runners in handicap hurdle contests here at Ffos Las. Mind you with 3 winners (50% SR) and 11.61pts (+193.5% ROI) profit, he does seem to have it bang on.

So, he sends just 1 runner here today, a lightly raced 4 yr old who has already landed a Listed race over 1m 7.5f, so he shouldn’t be getting outpaced here!

The yard has been in pretty hot form of late, consistently firing in the winners with a 41.7% strike rate over the past two months (20/48) and those figures aren’t skewed by a freak purple patch either, as they are 18/39 (46.2%) in the last 30 days, 13/31 (41.9%) in the last fortnight and 10 from 22 (45.5%) over the past week.

Paul is using Harry Cobden to ride today, to make full use of his 3lb claim and since 2010, the Nicholls’ handicap hurdlers ridden by 3lb claimers are 16/76 (21.1%) for 34.3pts (+45.2%)

And finally, the big numbers!

If you had backed very single one of Paul Nicholls’ runners over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4f since the start of 2014, you’d have cashed in 209 times from 784 bets, a strike rate of some 26.7% producing level stake profits of 146.5pts at an ROI of 18.7%, and of those 784 runners…

  • hurdlers are 117/442 (26.5%) for 89.8pts (+20.3%)
  • handicappers are 57/278 (20.5%) for 111.4pts (+40.1%)
  • and handicap hurdlers are 31/163 (19%) for 68.8pts (+42.2%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Tommy Silver at 7/2 BOG, from Bet365 (my preference), Boylesports or Ladbrokes, who were joint market leaders at 8.10am this morning, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.10 Ffos Las.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard…

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