Stat of the Day, 24th October 2016

Saturday’s Result :

2.25 Cheltenham : Young Dillon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Held up, in mid-division, in touch form 4th, not fluent 6th, ridden and hanging left after 3 out, hampered on bend after next, stayed on same pace flat)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

5.30 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG


This 3 yr old gelding wasn’t beaten by far (a length, a head and a nose) into 4th place of a big field (16 ran) handicap at Thirsk last time out almost 6 weeks ago. His performance looks even better after the event, when you realise that from stall 1, he was clearly on the “wrong side” as the rest of the first five home came from stalls 10, 16, 13 and 9.

The runner-up has since won in another big filed and that was over today’s course and distance, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

Prior to that defeat at Thirsk, Tricky Dicky‘s form was 1212, all over this 6f trip and to date, he is 3/10 (30% SR) for 58.93pts (+589.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, from which the following are relevant today…

  • over 6f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 61.9pts (+884.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/6 (50%) for 62.9pts (+1048.8%)
  • at 4/1 and shorter : 2/5 (40%) for 2.13pts (+42.6%)
  • in fields of 9-13 runners : 3/3 (100%) for 65.93pts (+2197.7%)
  • on a straight track : 2/4 (50%) for 60.12pts (+1503%)
  • here at Redcar : 1/1 (100%) for 60.8pts (+608%)

That Redcar win above was over this track and trip and with the 33/1 SP paying out 60.8pts profit at Betfair SP, that clearly skews the P/L and ROI of the above stats somewhat, but doesn’t detract from their validity.

A further level of reassurance can be taken from the fact that he’s by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3 yr olds are 82/596 (13.8% SR) for 279.6pts (+46.9% ROI) in UK Flat races, of which…

  • over 6f : 22/135 (16.3%) for 121.2pts (+89.7%)
  • this year : 19/102 (18.6%) for 141pts (+138.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/84 (16.7%) for 49.8pts (+59.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 2/9 (22.2%) for 62.2pts (+690.7%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available at 9.55pm on Sunday, although I’d advise using Bet365 where possible, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Redcar.

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Here is today’s racecard…

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