Wednesday’s Result :
3.30 Chelmsford : Unsuspected Girl @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away, in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG
He’s better known as a chaser, but got off the mark over hurdles last time out and has an overall record of 2 wins from 4 over today’s trip. He’s 4/15 on good/good to soft ground and has won twice under today’s jockey, Leighton Aspell and has 3 wins from 8 in fields of 7 runners or fewer.
He might well have been off the track for 191 days, but he did win at this time of year in 2014 after a lay-off of 177 days, also under Leighton Aspell and also his only other run in the month of October, so we does have a precedent.
He’s trained by Lucy Wadham, whose NH runners competing over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f are 55/313 (17.06% SR) for 208.1pts (+66.5% ROI) profit since 2010, of which…
- those racing at 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs are 44/241 (18.3%) for 124.8pts (+51.8%)
- those running in non-handicap races are 33/186 (17.7%) for 189.6pts (+101.9%)
- and those fulfilling both the above criteria are 25/147 (17%) for 116.7pts (+79.4%)
We can then take a closer look at those 147 non-handicappers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f and if we do that, we find that…
- Leighton Aspell has 11 winners from 73 (15.1%) for 90.9pts (+124.6%)
- runners in 2015/16 are 12/42 (28.6%) for 114.5pts (+272.5%)
- and Leighton Aspell is 6/21 (28.6%) for 86.2pts (+410.3%) in 2015/16.
Artifice Sivola is also Lucy’s only runner at the meeting and such solo representatives are 134/883 (15.2% SR) for 310.1pts (+35.1% ROI) since 2010, with the following of interest/relevance today…
- those travelling just 45 to 115 miles from her Newmarket base are 59/336 (17.6%) for 160.5pts (+47.8%)
- non-handicap races = 50/318 (15.7%) for 224.1pts (+70.5%)
- over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f : 40/236 (17%) for 109pts (+46.2%)
- ridden by Leighton Aspell : 33/216 (15.3%) for 58.7pts (+27.2%)
- and Class 3 runners are 24/168 (14.3%) for 98.7pts (+58.7%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 (my preference), Betbright, Betfair Sports, Hills and SkyBet at 5.30pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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