Stat of the Day, 27th October 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

3.30 Chelmsford : Unsuspected Girl @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away, in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

3.25 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG

Why?

He’s better known as a chaser, but got off the mark over hurdles last time out and has an overall record of 2 wins from 4 over today’s trip. He’s 4/15 on good/good to soft ground and has won twice under today’s jockey, Leighton Aspell and has 3 wins from 8 in fields of 7 runners or fewer.

He might well have been off the track for 191 days, but he did win at this time of year in 2014 after a lay-off of 177 days, also under Leighton Aspell and also his only other run in the month of October, so we does have a precedent.

He’s trained by Lucy Wadham, whose NH runners competing over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f are 55/313 (17.06% SR) for 208.1pts (+66.5% ROI) profit since 2010, of which…

  • those racing at 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs are 44/241 (18.3%) for 124.8pts (+51.8%)
  • those running in non-handicap races are 33/186 (17.7%) for 189.6pts (+101.9%)
  • and those fulfilling both the above criteria are 25/147 (17%) for 116.7pts (+79.4%)

We can then take a closer look at those 147 non-handicappers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f and if we do that, we find that…

  • Leighton Aspell has 11 winners from 73 (15.1%) for 90.9pts (+124.6%)
  • runners in 2015/16 are 12/42 (28.6%) for 114.5pts (+272.5%)
  • and Leighton Aspell is 6/21 (28.6%) for 86.2pts (+410.3%) in 2015/16.

Artifice Sivola is also Lucy’s only runner at the meeting and such solo representatives are 134/883 (15.2% SR) for 310.1pts (+35.1% ROI) since 2010, with the following of interest/relevance today…

  • those travelling just 45 to 115 miles from her Newmarket base are 59/336 (17.6%) for 160.5pts (+47.8%)
  • non-handicap races = 50/318 (15.7%) for 224.1pts (+70.5%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f : 40/236 (17%) for 109pts (+46.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 33/216 (15.3%) for 58.7pts (+27.2%)
  • and Class 3 runners are 24/168 (14.3%) for 98.7pts (+58.7%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 (my preference), Betbright, Betfair Sports, Hills and SkyBet at 5.30pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.25 Stratford.

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard…

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