Stat of the Day, 9th November 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

1.45 Huntingdon : Copperfacejack @ 7/2 BOG – non-runner (Vets Cert : Pulled Shoe Off)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

1.40 Ayr

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Viva Steve @ 11/4 BOG


In the last 30 days, trainer Fergal O’Brien’s runners are 8/25 (325 SR) for 54.6pts (+218.4% ROI), from which today’s jockey Paddy Brennan is 6 from 17 (35.3%) for 43pts (+253%) and the O’Brien chasers are 3/10 (30%) for 15.3pts (+153%).

Jockey Paddy Brennan is riding well independently too with 11 winners from36 (30.6% SR) for 58.4pts (+162.1% ROI) over the last month with 5 wins from 22 (22.7%) over fences generating level stakes profits of 10.24pts at a return of 46.5%.

Viva Steve already has 20 races under his belt, but now returns from a break of 200 days to make a debut for the O’Brien yards and since 2008, Fergal’s record with experienced horses running for the first time for him is decent enough with 12 winners from 97 (12.4% SR) for 80.4pts (+82.9% ROI) profit, including…

  • handicappers are 6/45 (13.3%) for 36.3pts (+80.6%)
  • those returning from a break of 3 to 7 months are 5/29 (17.2%) for 68.9pts (+237.7%)
  • chasers are 6/23 (26.1%) for 48.8pts (+212.3%)
  • those priced at 3/1 and shorter are 4/10 (40%) for 3.67pts (+36.7%)
  • Class 3 runners are 3/10 (30%) for 64.73pts (+647.3%)

In addition to the above, I’m mildly intrigued at Fergal sending this horse on a 700-mile round trip today, when Exeter also has racing and is a 250-mile round trip from the O’Brien yard in Gloucestershire, so I did a litle digging and I found that since 2012 in winter (Oct-Mar) NH races, Fergal o’briens runners making a round trip of 450 miles or more won 5 of 24 races (20.8% SR) for 4.23pts (+17.6% ROI) profit.

Of these travellers, those running at Class 3 or lower are 5/20 (25%) for 8.23pts (+41.2%) and those priced at 15/2 and shorter are 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.23pts (+76.4%), whilst those priced at 15/2 and shorter at Classes 3 to 6 are 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.23pts at an ROI of 88.2%…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Viva Steve at 11/4 BOG, from Betfair Sports, whilst there was plenty of 5/2 BOG elsewhere at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.40 Ayr

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Here is today’s racecard

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