Stat of the Day, 10th November 2016

Wednesday’s Result :

1.40 Ayr : Viva Steve @ 11/4 BOG – WON at 11/8 (Made most, clear 4 out to 2 out, soon ridden, kept on well from last to win by almost 3 lengths

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

5.55 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ninety Years Young @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Fairly simple and straightforward with this one (I hope!), as this 2 yr old colt comes here off the back of a win at this venue under today’s jockey a week ago. He scored by three parts of a length ridden out over 6f and he should be suited by the drop back in trip this time.

He’s one of only two past winners in a field of 12 whose combined record is a paltry 3/64 and he’s the only one to have won on this track prior to this contest. Since the venue re-opened, David Elsworth’s runners are 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 2.75pts (+18.3% ROI) with 10 male runners providing all the winners and those priced at 9/2 and shorter are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 11.75pts (+195.8% ROI)

In addition to the above, David Elsworth’s LTO winners are 16/54 (29.6% SR) for 18.8pts (+34.8% ROI) since the start of 2015 and these 54 runners themselves are…

• 14/39 (35.9%) for 26.56pts (+68.1%) in handicaps
• 12/36 (33.3%) for 21.45pts (+59.6%) from males
• 11/30 (36.7%) for 11.47pts (+38.2%) 6-20 days after their last outing
• and 7 from 13 (53.9%) for 11.73pts (+90.2%) on the All-Weather

More generally, male handicappers who won LTO in the previous 45 days are 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 24.8pts (+112.7% ROI), with those priced shorter than 7/1 winning 8 of 14 (57.1%) for 20.87pts (+149%)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Ninety Years Young at 3/1 BOG, from Bet365 (preferred) and BetVictor, whilst there was plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere at 6.10pm on Wednesday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.55 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard