Stat of the Day, 11th November 2016

Thursday’s Result :

5.55 Chelmsford : Ninety Years Young @ 3/1 BOG – 2nd at 6/4 (Bumped start towards rear, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, ran on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday’s pick goes in the…

1.20 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Indulged @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer James Fanshawe is 6 from 25 in the last 30 days and that 24% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 13.67pts at an ROI of 54.7%, from which…

  • handicappers are 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.11pts (+67.6%)
  • A/W runners are 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.17pts (+37.9%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.11pts (+123.5%)

Longer-term, his record in A/W handicaps is 84/366 (23% SR) for 119.9pts (+32.8% ROI) since 2009 with those priced at 8/1 and shorter producing a profit every year contributing to figures of 78/297 (26.3% SR) for 96pts (+32.3% ROI).

And of these 297 runners…

  • 3 yr olds are 43/165 (26.1%) for 40.3pts (+24.5%)
  • females are 34/116 (29.3%) for 46.4pts (+40%)
  • 3yr old females are 23/76 (30.3%) for 31.9pts (+41.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 12/34 (35.3%) for 28pts (+82.3%)

James is well known for being successful at Kempton, but he’s no slouch here at Lingfield either, especially if there’s market interest in his runners, as since the start of 2013, those priced at 4/1 and shorter here have won 7 of 18 (38.9%) for 6.2pts (+34.5%) profit, with females winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 3.94pts (+39.4%) and 3 yr olds are 3 from 6 (50%) for 6pts (+100%).

…hence…a 1pt win bet on Indulged at a widely available 4/1 BOG as of 5.40pm Thursday, although my preference is Bet365. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.20 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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