Stat of the Day, 12th November 2016

Friday’s Result :

1.20 Lingfield : Indulged @ 4/1 BOG (3.6/1 after 10p R4) WON at 6/4 (Keen, in touch in rear, not clear run and switched right entering final 2f, ridden to lead when hung right inside final furlong, ran on to win by 0.75 lengths)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.00 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Yorker @ 4/1 BOG withdrawn at 8.20am : Self Cert (Lame)


A fairly simple explanation (for a change!) today, as we seek the winner of this Listed contest.

The favourite Grendisar will be popular based on not only his C&D record, but also his prowess at this grade and at Gr3. I, however, think he’s too short and might well need the run after over 33 weeks off the track. His short price, however, should work in our favour enabling us to take odds a good point higher than I thought we might get.

And I’ve taken him on here with a 7yr olod gelding that has two runner-up finishes (at Gr 3 and at Listed) from his two UK runs and only went down by a neck LTO. He won 3 Grade 1 races in his native South Africa, so he’s clearly got the class/ability required here and in William Haggas, he’s in the right yard, as…

…the Haggas string are 32/98 (32.7% SR) for 46.8pts (+47.8% ROI) on the A/W here at Lingfield at odds of 5/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2012 and those 98 runners fit today’s contest as follows…

  • those who ran 11-60 days ago are 23/66 (34.9%) for 34.1pts (+51.6%)
  • in non-hcps : 20/56 (35.7%) for 34pts (+60.7%)
  • males are 18/51 (35.3%) for 29pts (+56.9%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 8/24 (33.3%) for 14.5pts (+60.6%)
  • ridden by Pat Cosgrave : 8/18 (44.4%) for 26.5pts (+147.1%)
  • at Class 1 : 4/13 (30.8%) for 0.75pts (+5.75%)
  • and in Listed contests : 4/10 (40%) for 3.75pts (+37.5%)

…highlighting…a 1pt win bet on Yorker at a widely available 4/1 BOG, a price widely available at 8.20pm on Friday, although my preference is Bet365. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

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Here is today’s racecard

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