Stat of the Day, 14th November 2016
Saturday’s Result :
2.00 Lingfield : Yorker @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 8.20am : Self Cert – Lame)
Monday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Donna’s Pride @ 9/2 BOG
Why?
This 7 yr old mare might well be on a fairly lengthy (14) losing run, but she’s looked more like her old self of late, making the frame four times in her last six appearances, symptomatic of an upturn in form for the Keith Reveley yard as a whole.
As a result of not winning, she now runs off a mark lower than her last winning effort and a drop in class might well just make that difference needed to get her home. That thought is backed up by the fact that Keith Reveley’s NH handicap class droppers are 27/129 (20.9% SR) for 85.7pts (+66.4% ROI) since the start of 2010, with…
- those dropping just 1 grade winning 21/103 (20.4%) for 69.8pts (+67.8%)
- those last seen 11-45 days back : 20/86 (23.3%) for 76.2pts (+88.6%)
- those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 : 20/70 (28.6%) for 55.4pts (+79.1%)
- those dropping into Class 5 : 6/34 (17.7%) for 13.2pts (+38.9%)
- and 7 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4%) for 54.6pts (+237.5%)
It’s also worth noting that in that same 2010-16 timeframe that Keith’s handicap hurdlers running at a lower mark than their last win and on a losing streak of 5 or more races are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 39.3pts (+187.1% ROI) when sent off in the 11/4 to 7/1 price banding, from which Class 5 runners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.2pts (+305%)
…resulting in…a 1pt win bet on Donna’s Pride at 9/2 BOG, a price offered at 7.05pm on Sunday by my preferred Bet365, but also from betVictor and Marathon. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Leave a Reply
Want to join the discussion?Feel free to contribute!