Stat of the Day, 15th November 2016

Monday’s Result :

12.50 Musselburgh : Donna’s Pride @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, not fluent 3rd, closed from 5th, led before 3 out, headed when not fluent 2 out, no impression on winner, stayed on same pace)

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

1.55 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Shypen @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last seven outings and two of her last four on the All-Weather, but I’m not surprised about that, considering she’s a daughter of Archipenko, but more on that shortly.

With regards to today’s contest, Shypen is 3 from 8 when rated 71-80, 3 from 6 over 6f and 2 from 4 going left handed, including a previous win here.

Now back to her father, Archipenko, whose offspring have been remarkably successful so far, winning 107/700 (15.1% SR) for 424.5pts (+59.8% ROI), including…

  • females are 45/248 (18.2%) for 306.7pts (+123.7%)
  • on the A/W : 46/235 (19.6%) for 276.6pts (+117.7%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 35/196 (17.9%) for 259.9pts (+132.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 34/167 (20.4%) for 248.1pts (+148.6%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 13/65 (20%) for 32.3pts (+49.7%)

AND…from the above, females on the A/W over 6/7 furlongs are 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 207.3pts (+531.6%), of which Polytrack runners are 8/30 (26.7%) for 168.1pts (+560.3%) with those coming here to Lingfield winning 3 of 9 (33.3%) for 13.2pts (+146.8%).

In additon to those numbers, she’ll also have the benefit of course specialist Tony Hamilton in the saddle and Tony has ridden 13 winners from 62 attempts (21% SR) for 55pts (+88.7% ROI) over the last three years, from which he is 10/37 (27%) for 72.7pts (+196.4%) in handicaps and 9/45 (20%) for 13pts (+28.9%) on horses trained by Richard Fahey.

AND…the Hamilton / Fahey / Lingfield AW hcp angle is worth 6/25 (24% SR) for 25.7pts (+102.8% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Shypen at 9/2 BOG, a price offered at 5.55pm on Monday by both BetVictor and Paddy Power with plenty of 4/1 BOG elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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