Stat of the Day, 19th November 2016

Friday’s Result :

3.20 Ascot : Minella Daddy @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Chased leader, led approaching 15th, clear when shaken up between last 2, great jump last, came further clear, stayed on strongly to win by 7 lengths)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Swiss Cross @ 3/1 BOG


Swiss Cross is a thriving 9yr old gelding who comes here seeking a hat-trick of course wins inside a shade over three weeks. He won here over 7f 22 days ago, before dropping back to todays 6f trip to win by 2.5 lengths four days ago. Today’s jockey Callum Shepherd has only ridden this horse in those two contests, so he aims to maintain the partnership’s 100% record here.

There is, of course, a 6lb weight issue to contend with, but Callum’s 5lb claim should keep the horse competitive and he caught my eye for a number of reasons, but as it’s now getting on (11.25pm!), I’ll just give you three!

  1. Since the start of 2012, LTO winners from 1-5 days back, now running on the A/W at the same trip as last time and are 0 to 7lbs higher in the weights, have won 63/190 (33.2% SR) for 32.7pts (+17.2% ROI), with those in the 11/10 to 7/1 price band winning 44 of 134 (32.8%) for 42.2pts (+31.5%)
  2. Trainer Phil McEntee plus 5lb claimer in an A/W handicap at odds of 6/4 to 11/1 during 2013-16 = 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 46.5pts (136.8% ROI), from which…
    …Class 6 runners are 6/23 (26.1%) for 34.5pts (150.1%)
    …those racing over 6/7 furlongs are 8/14 (57.1%) for 59.6pts (+425.7%)
    …and those racing over 6/7f at Class 6 are 5 from 10 (50%) for 40.62pts (+406.2%)
  3. This 9 yr old is a son of the prolific Cape Cross, whose offspring are 105/505 (21% SR) for 205pts (+40.6% ROI) on the A/W since the start of 2015, with the following of note today…
    …in handicaps : 68/339 (20.1%) for 125.4pts (+37%)
    …at Lingfield : 28/125 (22.4%) for 52.9pts (+42.3%)
    …over 6/7 furlongs : 24/113 (21.2%) for 70.6pts (+62.5%)
    …and at Class 6 : 18/88 (20.5%) for 55.pts (+63.3%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Swiss Cross at 3/1 BOG with any of Betfair Sports, BetVictor, Hills and/or Paddy Power who led the way at 9.15pm on Friday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.35 Lingfield

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Here is today’s racecard

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