Stat of the Day, 21st November 2016

Saturday’s Result :

2.35 Lingfield : Swiss Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up, headway entering final furlong, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on for a comfortable win by 2.25 lengths)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

2.50 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Noche de Reyes @ 2/1 BOG


A little shorter than I’d normally go for, but there’s very little of interest to me in the usual 11/4 to 5/1 range that I try to play in.

This 7 yr old gelding comes here off the back of a decent runner-up finish in a Listed event at Ascot 23 days ago, when only beaten by Quite By Chance who ran well again at the weekend off a mark of 143. Our bouy now drops down to Class 3 handicap company off 129 and he’s 3/12 at this level with all three wins coming from six efforts here at Ludlow, all over the 2m trip where his form reads 12P112.

Those three wins have contributed to his trainer Tom George having 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) for profits of 29.5pts (+42.1% ROI) during the November-April period of 2011-16. Of these 70 runners (applicable here today)…

  • males are 18/65 (27.7%) for 34.5pts (+53%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 17/55 (30.9%) for 42.2pts (+76.8%)
  • handicappers are 14/44 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+49.8%)
  • chasers are 14/38 (36.8%) for 27.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/36 (36.1%) for 25.2pts (+70%)
  • and over 2m : 9/30 (30%) for 28.2pts (+93.9%)

AND…males aged 5-8 in Class 3 handicap chases are 11 from 26 (42.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+120.8% ROI), of which those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 11/21 (52.4%) for 36.4pts (+173.4%) with those racing over 2m winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 13.34pts (+133.4%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Noche de Reyes at 2/1 BOG with any of Bet365 (my preference), BetVictor, Hills, Betbright, Ladbrokes and/or Boylesports who all concurred at 11.20pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ludlow

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Here is today’s racecard

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