Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

1.20 Southwell : Thello @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (A/W meeting abandoned due to flooding!)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

6.55 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Star Storm @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Another short but hopefully sweet simple one for Wednesday, as we side with the in-form track specialist James Fanshawe, whose runners have 3 wins and four places from 14 starts in the last fortnight and he’ll be hoping to build on that at a venue that has been good to him in recent years.

In fact, since the start of 2010, he’s had 92 winners here from 394 runners (23.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 139.4pts at an attractive ROI of 35.4%. And those figures are from backing all of his runners here.

Appreciative of the fact that Geegeez readers are a little more selective than blind backing (and why wouldn’t you, with all the tools at your disposal in Geegeez Gold?) and also mindful of the fact 55-60 bets a year from one angle can also be too much, let’s break those runners down and see how they fit the profile of today’s race.

And so in descending sample size, those original 394 runners are…

  • 73/282 (25.9) for 112.2pts (+39.8%) after a break of 6-75 days
  • 70/247 (28.3%) for 128.6pts (+52.1%) at odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 72/225 (32%) for 130.3pts (+57.9%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 39/102 (38.2%) for 84.75pts (+83.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 30/97 (30.9%) for 85.2pts (+87.8%)
  • those racing over today’s 1m4f are 20/63 (31.75%) for 65.6pts (+104.1%)
  • at Class 1 : 4/10 (40%) for 16.03pts (+160.3%)
  • and in Listed contests : 3/8 (37.5%) for 12.88pts (+161%)

AND…if you’d backed James’ 3-5 yr olds over 1m3f/1m4f at odds of 7/4 to 8/1, some 6-75 days after a top 5 finish LTO, you’d have had 17 winners from 44 (38.6% SR) with a £20 level stake netting you £546 profit at an ROI of 62%, with those finishing in the first 2 LTO winning 10 of 22 (45.5%) for 23.96pts (+108.9%)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Star Storm at 9/2 BOG available at 6.25pm on Tuesday from BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes, but to see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.55 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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