Stat of the Day, 30th November 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

1.25 Southwell : Toviere @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led, ridden and headed after 2 out, 3rd and weakening before last)

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.20 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Copper Birch @ 3/1 non-BOG until morning or 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-tirck, having won here at Ffos Las over 3 miles 24 days ago, before going on to score again by 7 lengths over 2m3f at relatively nearby Hereford a week ago, showing versatility regarding trip and going acros the two runs.

He went up 2lbs for the first win, but the booking of a 10lb claimer more than took care of that and with that second win coming in a conditional jockey’s race, there’s no penalty today, but the 10lb claimer keeps the ride, effectively making the horse well in.

And the stats?

Since the start of 2011, handicap chasers aged 7 to 11 who were winners last time out within the previous 7 days and had also ran at least one other time in the past three months are 112 from 354 (31.6% SR) for 77pts (+21.7% ROI), of which…

  • males are 104/321 (32.4%) for 80.2pts (+25%)
  • those who won by more than a lengthy LTO are 105/313 (33.6%) for 93.4pts (+29.8%)
  • those racing on good or good to soft ground are 63/194 (32.5%) for 84.2pts (+43.4%)
  • and at trips of 2m5f/2m6f : 15/29 (51.7%) for 63.6pts (+219.2%)

AND…from the above : males racing on good / good to soft ground and who won by more than a length LTO are 57/158 (36.1% SR) for 79.8pts (+50.5% ROI) with those racing over 2m5f/2m6f winning 11 of 15 (73.3%) for 58.8pts (+392%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Copper Birch at 3/1 with either Betfred or Totesport, but they don’t go BOG until morning or you can take 11/4 BOG from Bet365 and about 8 others, as of 6.40pm on Tuesday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Ffos Las

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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