Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2016

Friday’s Result :

2.25 Sandown : Messire Des Obeaux @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on inside, 3rd before not fluent 2 out, driven and one pace between last 2, rallied last, 2nd run-in, stayed on gamely to lead inside final 150 yards, held on by half a length)

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

12.00 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Over the last fortnight, trainer Evan Williams’ runners have won 8 of their 35 races, whilst today’s jockey Paul Moloney is 5 from 29 in the same time, so both can be considered as being in decent nick.

They now team up with this 3 yr old who has won two of her last three starts, including a win on her hurdling debut over 2m1f at Exeter 13 days ago, when she was partnered by Paul Moloney for the first time.

And as well as being my fancy for this particular race, she catches the eye statistically as Evan Williams’ runners who were LTO winners scored back to back successes on 43 of 177  (24.3% SR) occasions since the start of 2014, yielding level stakes profits of 141.8pts at an ROI of 184.3%, from which…

  • those who last ran within the previous 90 days are 36/145 (24.8%) for 133.3pts (+91.9%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f : 36/124 (29%) for 156.5pts (+126.2%)
  • hurdlers are 28/87 (32.2%) for 160.4pts (+184.3%)

AND…hurdlers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f within 90 days of that LTO win are 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 143.9pts (+252.5% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Evening Hush at 100/30 BOG from Hills, BetVictor and/or SkyBet, as of 8.40pm on Friday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 12.00 Aintree

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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