Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday’s Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday’s pick goes in the…

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He’s trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he’s one to keep an eye on in the long run.

Dai interests me because if you’d blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you’d be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows…

• those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
• those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
• over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
• chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
• those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
• and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it’s also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which…

• 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
• won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
• 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND…9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard