Stat of the Day, 7th December 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

2.50 Southwell : Royal Holiday @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 Prominent, led entering final 3f, ridden and headed over 2f out, kept on one pace and lost 2 places inside final furlong.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

7.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Timekeeping @ 5/2 BOG


Towards the bottom end of my preferred odds range for SotD, but this 3yr old colt ticks so many statistical boxes here that I found it difficult to overlook him.

Firstly, he comes from a thriving Saeed bin Suroor yard that has had 10 winners from 30 (33.3% SR) in the past month and is 3/8 (37.5%) over the last fortnight, so I’m already interested in Saeed’s only runner of the day.

Then we add in his record at Kempton, where since 2009, his runners are 110/367 (30% SR) for 105.2pts (+28.7% ROI) profit, including of relevance today…

  • 41/143 (28.7%) for 61.9pts (+43.3%) in handicaps
  • 41/137 (29.9%) for 26.3pts (+19.2%) at Class 4
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 18.8pts (+23.8%) in Class 4 handicaps
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 8.5pts (+170%) over 2 miles.

And if that’s not enough to send you to place a bet, today is Timekeeping‘s 2nd effort in a handicap and since 2012 the Suroor “second timers” are 45/171 (26.3% SR) for 85.6pts (+50.1% ROI), including…

  • 15 wins from 61 (24.6%) from those stepping up in trip for profits of 23.8pts (+39% ROI)
  • 13 from 51 (25.5%) at Class 4 for 13.1pts (+25.7%)
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 42.5pts (+184.8%) here at Kempton
  • and 1 from 2 for 3.75pts (+187.5%) over this 2m trip.

And for those of you wanting/needing more, there’s plenty, but I’ll leave it after this next one!

As a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, Timekeeping will get an 8lb weight for age allowance and Saeed bin Suroor is a master at exploiting this weight loophole. On the A/W over trips of 1m2f and beyond (the allowance increases with trip!) since the start of 2014, his 3 yr olds are 10/28 (35.7%) for 17.2pts (+61.4%), including…

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13pts (+108.5%) here at Kempton
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.5pts (+150%) at Class 4
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 1.2pts (+30%) over 2m/2m0.5f

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Timekeeping at 5/2 BOG which was offered by a dozen firms including my preferred Bet365 at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.15 Kempton

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Here is today’s racecard

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