Stat of the Day, 9th December 2016

Thursday’s Result :

2.40 Taunton : Winning Spark @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Held up, towards rear, headway to chase leaders after 3 out, every chance from last, stayed on strongly to lead last strides.

Friday’s pick goes in the…

2.15 Doncaster

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Jac The Legend @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is massively consistent, with 9 top 3 finishes (inc 2 wins) from his last 11 starts and has been running well at a higher level than this contest of late.

He was a decent enough third at Sedgefield 6 weeks ago, despite coming off a break of 215 days and today’s drop in both class and trip should see him in an even better light, especially as he has two wins and a place from 3 runs at 3m1.5f to 3m3f.

The in-form (10 wins from 36 so far this month) Brian Hughes takes the ride for Brian Ellison today and the yard itself is also in good nick with 4 winners from 9 this month and over fences they have had 4 winners and 3 placers from their last nine runners.

Jac The Legend is another son of my favourite sire, Midnight Legend, from whom we have a myriad of profitable angles, but I’ll just briefly give you an overview of how his offspring have performed in handicap chases since 2009…

In this sphere, we get 161 winners from 932 (17.3% SR) for 364.1pts (+39.1% ROI) profit from blind backing and in respect of this particular race, those 932 can be broken down as follows…

  • males are 128/725 (17.7%) for 298.9pts (+41.2%)
  • after a break of at least three weeks : 102/609 (16.8%) for 331.8pts (+54.5%)
  • on good ground : 55/347 (15.9%) for 172.4pts (+49.7%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m4f : 47/300 (15.7%) for 196.2pts (+65.4%)
  • and at Class 3 : 39/272 (14.3%) for 105pts (+38.6%)

In addition to the recent form of the trainer/jockey/horse and his breeding, it’s also worth noting that Brian Ellison’s handicappers having just their second outing in a 90-day period and ran 11 or more days ago are 41/326 (12.6%) for 41.5pts (+12.7%) since 2010.

…backing up…a 1pt win bet on Jac The Legend at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 (preferred), Betway and/orHills who led the way at 6.10pm on Thursday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.15 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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