Stat of the Day, 13th December 2016

Monday’s Result :

3.30 Plumpton : Shimba Hills @ 5/2 BOG WON at 2/1 Held up rear of mid-division, headway 3 out, led before last, driven out to win by 1.75 lengths.

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

12.30 Southwell…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Boots And Spurs @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding clearly likes it here, winning twice and making the frame on one other occasion from just four runs at this track. He’s 3 from 9 at Class 5 and the market is usally a very good indicator of his chances, with him winning 6 of 18 (33.3% SR) for 16.78pts (+93.2% ROI) when priced in the 5/2 to 8/1 bracket.

He’s in decent enough form of late, finishing 242 in his last three runs, and was only narrowly beaten last time out. That was here over 7f when he got caught really late in the piece, so the drop back in triop could well help him back to winning ways off the same mark and under the same jockey as last time.

He’s trained by Scott Dixon, who has had 30 winners from 212 (14.2% SR) runners in Southwell A/W handicaps since the start of 2014, producing level stakes profits of 120.7pts at an ROI of 56.9%, with his “winter” (ie November-March inclusive) runners performing exceptionally well, winning 28 of 187 (15%) for 98.9pts (+52.9%)

He’s also top rated by the assessor, but aided by his jockey’s 7lb claim again, but being at top of the racecard isn’t always a bad thing and since the start of 2011 in Southwell Class 5 A/W handicaps over 5f to 1m6f, top-rated runners who were 3-10 year old males have won 83 of 358 (23.2% SR) for 45.3pts (+12.7% ROI), of which…

  • those priced at 12/1 and shorter are 82/308 (26.6%) for 66.7pts (+21.7%)
  • 6 to 10 year olds are 32/133 (24.1%) for 84.8pts (+63.7%)
  • and 6 to 10 year olds priced at 12/1 and shorter are 31/109 (28.4%) for 80.2pts (+73.6% ROI) profit…

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Boots And Spurs at 5/1 BOG with Bet365 who led the way at 5.15pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 12.30 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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