Race of the Day – 14:50 Musselburgh
This is a 0-125 handicap hurdle over two miles and three furlongs on good ground at Musselburgh.
Brian Hughes has been getting plenty of winners recently, with a strike rate of almost 25% for the past month. He also has very useful course form, with 12 winners (29.27%) and 24 places (58.54%) over the past year for level stakes profits of 15.16 and 36.66 respectively. He rides Captain Brown here today, who is currently around the 7/1 mark.
With the Instant Expert tab on the place setting, Teo Vivo has a useful line of green, with three sections and quite a few runs in that sample. He also has one section of amber, with just the going not looking suited to him. He definitely appears more at home on the softer going however, so assuming there is no rain between now and race time, it may be asking a little too much, despite other conditions being in his favour.
The more prominent the runner, the better chance they have of winning according to the Pace tab. Over 20% of horses that have lead the race over this course and distance have gone on to win, for a level stakes profit of 39.13 from 88 runs.
Prominent runners are next best, with poor results for horses that are mid division or held up.
There is no real front runner in this field from looking at the pace scores, although both Teo Vivo and Arthurs Secret are usually very handy, and it looks like it may be down to one of them to take the field along. This also means that if somebody does try and shoot off in front, there is the possibility of them getting a ‘soft’ lead, and from there is may prove difficult to peg them back.
Trainer Statistics is the report that is free to all users on a Wednesday, and it is a brilliant tool for highlighting particular courses that trainers tend to do well at.
Sandy Thomson, who runs Arthurs Secret here today, has an excellent record at Musselburgh over the past five years. He’s had 10 winners (22.22%) and 20 places (44.44%) from 45 runners for level stakes profits over 36.30 and 43.69 respectively. As seen from above, the horse usually likes to run prominently, which is an advantage, and is one pound lower than for his last victory. Therefore he looks to be in with a decent chance in this.
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