Stat of the Day, 14th December 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

12.30 Southwell : Boots And Spurs @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, weakened over 1f out.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

1.30 Newbury…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Beware The Bear @ 3/1 BOG


This 6 yr old gelding couldn’t be in better form, having won each of his last three outings. The latest win was on his chase debut at Ascot 25 days ago at the grade under today’s jockey over today’s 3m trip, where he defied an absence of 185 days to beat Singlefarmpayment relatively comfortably by almost 3 lengths : the form of that race has since been franked by the runner-up subsequently winning at a higher grade next time out.

Trainer Nicky Henderson is 24 from 88 (27.3% SR) in the past month and over the last week, his chasers are 3 from 10.

Here at Newbury, the market generally has his runners sussed out and since the start of 2013, those sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 31 from 72 (43.1% SR) for 26.4pts (+36.7% ROI) profit : not bad a tall for the sharp end of affairs!. Those 72 runners also include…

  • 30 winners from 63 (47.6%) 3 to 6 yr olds for profits of 28.7pts (+45.5%)
  • males are 29/61 (47.5%) for 33.84pts (+55.5%)
  • at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 18.86pts (+82%)
  • those who last ran 16-30 days ago are 11/19 (57.9%) for 8.46pts (+44.5%)
  • and at 2m5f to 3m : 8/18 (44.4%) for 14.42pts (+80.1%)

In addition to the above, male Class 3 chasers aged 6-9 yrs old who won a handicap chase LTO 11-150 days ago by 2 to 10 lengths are 152/735 (20.7% SR) for 161.3pts (+21.9% ROI) since 2008, of which…

  • handicappers are 146/701 (20.8%) for 170.3pts (+24.3%)
  • those last seen 11-25 days ago are 95/373 (25.5%) for 186.2pts (+49.9%)
  • 6 yr olds are 34/140 (24.3%) for 43.3pts (+31%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Beware The Bear at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 who led the way at 6.20pm on Tuesday with plenty of more than acceptable 11/4 available elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.30 Newbury

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Here is today’s racecard

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