Tuesday’s Result :
12.30 Southwell : Boots And Spurs @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, weakened over 1f out.
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
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Beware The Bear @ 3/1 BOG
This 6 yr old gelding couldn’t be in better form, having won each of his last three outings. The latest win was on his chase debut at Ascot 25 days ago at the grade under today’s jockey over today’s 3m trip, where he defied an absence of 185 days to beat Singlefarmpayment relatively comfortably by almost 3 lengths : the form of that race has since been franked by the runner-up subsequently winning at a higher grade next time out.
Trainer Nicky Henderson is 24 from 88 (27.3% SR) in the past month and over the last week, his chasers are 3 from 10.
Here at Newbury, the market generally has his runners sussed out and since the start of 2013, those sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 31 from 72 (43.1% SR) for 26.4pts (+36.7% ROI) profit : not bad a tall for the sharp end of affairs!. Those 72 runners also include…
- 30 winners from 63 (47.6%) 3 to 6 yr olds for profits of 28.7pts (+45.5%)
- males are 29/61 (47.5%) for 33.84pts (+55.5%)
- at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 18.86pts (+82%)
- those who last ran 16-30 days ago are 11/19 (57.9%) for 8.46pts (+44.5%)
- and at 2m5f to 3m : 8/18 (44.4%) for 14.42pts (+80.1%)
In addition to the above, male Class 3 chasers aged 6-9 yrs old who won a handicap chase LTO 11-150 days ago by 2 to 10 lengths are 152/735 (20.7% SR) for 161.3pts (+21.9% ROI) since 2008, of which…
- handicappers are 146/701 (20.8%) for 170.3pts (+24.3%)
- those last seen 11-25 days ago are 95/373 (25.5%) for 186.2pts (+49.9%)
- 6 yr olds are 34/140 (24.3%) for 43.3pts (+31%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Beware The Bear at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 who led the way at 6.20pm on Tuesday with plenty of more than acceptable 11/4 available elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…
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