Stat of the Day, 16th December 2016

Thursday’s Result :

1.00 Exeter : Rocklander @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Tracked leaders, went 2nd and every chance 2 out, held last, driven and kept on same pace run-in.

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.15 Wolverhampton…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Dougan @ 7/2 BOG


This 4 yr old gelding was a winner last time out (Dundalk, 6f) 6 weeks ago, taking his record on the All-Weather to 6 wins and 2 places from just 9 runs and in the context of today’s contest, that excellent record contains…

  • 4 wins from 6 going left handed
  • 4 from 5 at 6f
  • 4 from 5 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

His trainer, David Evans, has a record of 17 winners from 86 (19.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+28.4% ROI) with handicappers who won last time out and have also previously won over course and distance, of which…

  • those running at the same trip as LTO are 14/59 (23.7%) for 30.7pts (+52%)
  • those who last ran 11 to 50 days ago are 8/44 (18.2%) for 38.1pts (+86.6%)
  • over trips of 5/6 furlongs : 8/35 (22.9%) for 20.5pts (+58.5%)
  • at Class 2 2/5 (40%$) for 23.86pts (+477.1%)

In addition to the above, Dougan is by Dutch Art, whose offspring are 15/84 (17.9% SR) for 30.3pts (+36.1% ROI) in handicaps on Tapeta when their previous outing was on a different surface. Of these 84 such runners…

  • those who last ran 16-45 days ago are 9/45 (20%) for 19.65pts (+43.7%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 10/26 (38.5%) for 51.62pts (+198.5%)
  • LTO winners are 5/13 (38.5%) for 6.65pts (+51.2%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Dougan at 7/2 BOG with Betfair Sports who led the way at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of more than acceptable 100/30 BOG available elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies’ odds, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard

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