Stat of the Day, 28th December 2016

Tuesday’s Result :

12.50 Chepstow : Pobbles Bay @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 – Tracked leaders, lost place when not fluent 5th, headway 9th, 2nd 4 out, led next, edged left after 2 out, clear flat, stayed on well to win by four and a half lengths.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

2.00 Leicester

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Foundation Man @ 4/1 BOG


This 9 yr old gelding comes here seeking both a hat-trick and also his 4th win in 6 starts to bolster an already impressive 5 wins from 23 over fences, which contain the following of interest/relevance today…

  • 5 from 19 in fields of 10 or fewer runners
  • 3 from 12 at 2m4f/2m4.5f
  • 4 from 11 without headgear
  • 4 from 10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 8 within 22 days of his last run
  • 3 from 8 this year
  • 3 from 6 under today’s jockey
  • 2 from 4 running in December
  • and 1 from 1 here at Leicester

He won here two starts (and 20 days) ago when making all on the way to a 15 length victory in an admittedly weak contest, but then defied a 7lb rise to score again by 4 lengths just 2 days later, when once again making all at Doncaster. He now returns to Leicester after an 18-day rest, hopefully suitably refreshed and I expect the same tactics at a track that rewards front runners (23 wins from 99 @ 23.2% SR for 15.2pts at an ROI of 15.3%)

He’s trained by Jonjo O’Neill, whose handicap chasers turned back out within 30 days of an LTO win are 19/103 (18.5% SR) for 21.1pts (+20.5% ROI) since 2008, including…

  • over trips of 2m3f to 3m1.5f : 17/78 (21.8%) for 32.2pts (+41.3%)
  • within 20 days of that LTO win : 11/47 (23.4%) for 32pts (+68.1%)
  • AND…over trips of 2m3f to 3m1.5f within 20 days of that LTO win : 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 36.7pts (+101.9% ROI), including Foundation Man LTO!

And in addition to all the above data, male Class 3 handicap chasers, aged 6 to 9 yrs old, who won a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11 to 150 days ago are 118/569 (20.7% SR) for 100.1pts (+17.6% ROI) since 2010, with the following of note today…

  • those winning by 3-10 lengths LTO are 98/422 (23.2%) for 119.6pts (+28.3%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 54/185 (29.2%) for 136.6pts (+73.9%)
  • 9 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 28.7pts (+27.3%)
  • and those racing over this 2m4f trip are 16/55 (29.1%) for 35.5pts (+64.5%).

And, from the above : those who won by 3-10 lengths LTO 11-20 days ago are 45/133 (33.8% SR) for 125pts (+94% ROI), with those in the Evens to 11/2 price range winning 36 of 89 (40.5%) for 61.2pts (+68.7%).

…which provides…a 1pt win bet on Foundation Man at 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair SB, BetVictor, Betway, Ladbrokes and/or Hills (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard


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