Tuesday’s Result :
12.50 Chepstow : Pobbles Bay @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 – Tracked leaders, lost place when not fluent 5th, headway 9th, 2nd 4 out, led next, edged left after 2 out, clear flat, stayed on well to win by four and a half lengths.
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Foundation Man @ 4/1 BOG
This 9 yr old gelding comes here seeking both a hat-trick and also his 4th win in 6 starts to bolster an already impressive 5 wins from 23 over fences, which contain the following of interest/relevance today…
- 5 from 19 in fields of 10 or fewer runners
- 3 from 12 at 2m4f/2m4.5f
- 4 from 11 without headgear
- 4 from 10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
- 4 from 8 within 22 days of his last run
- 3 from 8 this year
- 3 from 6 under today’s jockey
- 2 from 4 running in December
- and 1 from 1 here at Leicester
He won here two starts (and 20 days) ago when making all on the way to a 15 length victory in an admittedly weak contest, but then defied a 7lb rise to score again by 4 lengths just 2 days later, when once again making all at Doncaster. He now returns to Leicester after an 18-day rest, hopefully suitably refreshed and I expect the same tactics at a track that rewards front runners (23 wins from 99 @ 23.2% SR for 15.2pts at an ROI of 15.3%)
He’s trained by Jonjo O’Neill, whose handicap chasers turned back out within 30 days of an LTO win are 19/103 (18.5% SR) for 21.1pts (+20.5% ROI) since 2008, including…
- over trips of 2m3f to 3m1.5f : 17/78 (21.8%) for 32.2pts (+41.3%)
- within 20 days of that LTO win : 11/47 (23.4%) for 32pts (+68.1%)
- AND…over trips of 2m3f to 3m1.5f within 20 days of that LTO win : 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 36.7pts (+101.9% ROI), including Foundation Man LTO!
And in addition to all the above data, male Class 3 handicap chasers, aged 6 to 9 yrs old, who won a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11 to 150 days ago are 118/569 (20.7% SR) for 100.1pts (+17.6% ROI) since 2010, with the following of note today…
- those winning by 3-10 lengths LTO are 98/422 (23.2%) for 119.6pts (+28.3%)
- those last seen 11-20 days ago are 54/185 (29.2%) for 136.6pts (+73.9%)
- 9 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 28.7pts (+27.3%)
- and those racing over this 2m4f trip are 16/55 (29.1%) for 35.5pts (+64.5%).
And, from the above : those who won by 3-10 lengths LTO 11-20 days ago are 45/133 (33.8% SR) for 125pts (+94% ROI), with those in the Evens to 11/2 price range winning 36 of 89 (40.5%) for 61.2pts (+68.7%).
…which provides…a 1pt win bet on Foundation Man at 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair SB, BetVictor, Betway, Ladbrokes and/or Hills (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS