Friday’s Result :
2.50 Newcastle : Thello @ 5/1 BOG 5th @ 5/2 Held up, mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong.
Saturday’s pick goes in the…
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Natural Scenery @ 5/2 non-BOG or 9/4 BOG
This 3 yr old filly has made just six starts to date, but already has 2 wins and 2 placed finishes, is 1 from 2 on the A/W and 1 from 1 at today’s trip.
She’s trained by Saeed bin Suroor, whose record in A/W handicaps over the last 8 years stands at 91 winners from 296 (30.7% SR) for level stake profits of 88.4pts at an ROI of 29.9%. Of particular relevance from those 296 runners are…
- females winning 28 of 92 (30.4%) for 60.1pts (+65.3%)
- Class 3 runners winning 32 of 87 (36.8%) for 50.3pts (+57.8%)
- here at Lingfield : 16/44 (36.4%) for 6.9pts (+15.6%)
- and ridden by Ali Rawlinson : 6/9 (66.6%) for 7.5pts (+83.3%)
As a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, the jockey’s 3lb claim is also supplemented by a 5lb weight for age allowance, basically putting Natural Scenery well in by 8lbs here. This weight allowance increases with the race distance and Saeed bin Suroor is one of the better trainers at getting the most from this scheme.
Since the start of 2010, his 3yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of 1m2f and beyond are 36/145 (24.8% SR) for 11.4pts (+7.9% ROI), with the following at play today…
- those priced at 6/4 to 4/1 are 27/75 (36%) for 30pts (+40%)
- over the last 3 yrs : 23/74 (31.1%) for 28.1pts (+37.9%)
- females are 14/48 (29.2%) for 13.6pts (+28.3%)
- on the A/W : 13/46 (28.3%) for 6.9pts (+15%)
- and here at Lingfield : 3/10 (30%) for 0.79pts (+7.9%)
And finally a quick nod towards her father, Dubawi, whose offspring are 90/381 (23.6% SR) for 177.2pts (+46.5% ROI) over today’s 1m4f trip, with 3 yr olds winning 52 of 206 (25.2%) for 137.7pts (+66.9%).
…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Natural Scenery at 5/2 non-BOG which was available from Betfred and Totesport at 6.20pm on Friday, but as they don’t go BOG until morning, I’ll be settling the result at 9/4 BOG, which was widely available, especially from my preferred Bet365.
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS