Race of the Day – 3 Jan

Race of the Day – 17:10 Newcastle

The all weather track at Newcastle is the venue for today’s Race of the Day, and a six furlong 0-95 handicap.

Phil McEntee is a trainer in form, and for the past month he has had over half of his runners (12/22) getting a place, for a level stakes profit of 21.41. He runs Gentlemen here today, a horse who has been consistently making the frame of late.

Gentlemen has enough going for him to make The Shortlist (which is the free report for all users on a Tuesday) on the ‘Place’ setting , with a score of ten. It may have been even higher as he has a good record on the artificial surfaces, however he has never raced here at Newcastle. He certainly looks almost like a bet to nothing from an each way perspective, assuming all eight runners stand their ground.

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The Instant Expert tab obviously looks good for Gentlemen, given that he made The Shortlist.

Doc Sportello also has three sections of green and one of amber, however this is from a very small sample of races. He has also been put up 12 pounds for his last win, so this should prove a lot tougher.

The favourite Poyle Vinnie is very consistent with today’s race conditions, and although he is 12 pounds higher than for his last win, he was a very good second place at this course just a few days ago, and runs from the same mark, therefore a repeat of that has to see him go close.

Horses that lead here over this distance have a very good record, with almost 17% of them going on to take the victory, for a level stakes profit of 96.62. Interestingly, the next best are horses that are held of off the pace, with almost 10% of them winning.

Red Pike, Luis Vaz De Torres and Gentlemen look likely to be fighting out for the lead, going on their ‘Pace’ score from their previous four races.

The isn’t a large enough sample to ascertain whether or not there is a draw bias, with horses drawn towards to centre having slightly the best win and place percentage. Low numbers are showing a large level stakes profit, but I assume this is due to one or two very big priced winners.

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