Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2017

Monday’s Result :

3.50 Plumpton : Shimba Hills @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/4 Held up in last pair, smooth headway on wide outside tracking leaders before 3 out, 2nd between last two, ridden to lead run-in, driven out to win by a half length.

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

1.30 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Quite often I give you lots of data around the past performance of trainers and jockeys and the breeding of a horse, which all then suggest that chosen runner will perform well under the race conditions ahead. Today is slightly different, because I’ve chosen a horse proven in the type of race he’ll face.

I suppose it’s the old horses for courses adage. Anyway Proud Gamble has won four of his twenty starts to date, which is decent, but unspectacular, yet when we see that his record in non-novice handicap chases is 4 wins and 3 places from 12 (33.3% win SR) for level stakes profits of 11.95pts at an ROI of 99.6%, then I’m suddenly interested.

A closer look at those 12 experiences have prepared him for today tells us that he is…

  • 4 from 10 (40%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%) over 2m7.5f/3m
  • 4 from 10 (40%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%) at 6 to 45 days after his last run
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.35pts (+53.5%) under jockey Craig Nichol
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 15.95pts (+199.4%) in the August to February period
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 15.95pts (+199.4%) going right handed
  • 4 from 6 (66.7%) for 17.95pts (+299.2%) at odds of 13/2 and shorter
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 12.01pts (+200.2%) on Good ground
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 9.35pts (+155.8%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 5.41pts (+135.25%) at Class 4.

AND…from the above over 2m7.5f/3m at odds of 13/2 and shorter, 6-45 days since he last ran, going right handed in August to February, he is 4 from 5 (80%) for 18.95pts (+379% ROI).

Of those 5 races, he is 3/4 under Craig Nichol, 3/4 here at Musselburgh, 3/4 on Good ground and 2/2 at Class 4.

Which leads to a 2 from 2 record for 7.41pts profit under today’s conditions where he runs in a Class 4 handicap chase here at Musselburgh on good ground under Craig Nichol over 2m7.5f/3m at odds of 13/2 and shorter, 6-45 days since he last ran, going right handed in August to February!

…making it worth…a 1pt win bet on Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 15 others (so we should all get the same price!) at 6.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.30 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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