Stat of the Day, 5th January 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

2.35 Newcastle : Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 2/1 Steadied and switched left start, took keen hold in last pair, hung badly left and rider lost a rein making him unable to ride effectively from 3f out, stayed on into 3rd well inside final furlong, nearest finish but never able to challenge, beaten by just over half a length

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

2.00 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Elusive Cowboy @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Finished third on his second start, but then failed to make the frame in any of his next four outings, before being given a Wolverhampton debut 10 days ago, when he won relatively comfortably here by a length and a quarter, having led from 2 furlongs out under today’s jockey Stephen Donohoe.

He’s up 6lbs for that win, but gets a 6lb weight allowance here today due to his age, so he should be competitive once again and this sudden improvement in form isn’t rare on the A/W and over the last 9 years, horses priced at 10/11 to 11/2 in A/W handicaps here at Wolverhampton, running within 30 days of an LTO A/W win that was preceded by a run of 3 or unplaced efforts are 120/422 (28.4% SR) for 80.4pts (+19.1% ROI) profit.

And of those 422 runners…

  • those with at least 5 days rest are 109/378 (28.8%) for 79pts (+20.9%)
  • males are 90/319 (28.2%) for 61.8pts (+19.4%)
  • those who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 81/268 (30.2%) for 98.3pts (+36.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 38/122 (31.2%) for 41.9pts (+34.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 32/109 (29.4%) for 26.5pts (+24.3%)
  • at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f : 25/59 (42.4%) for 34.8pts (+59%)
  • at this 1m6f course and distance : 9/18 (50%) for 14.7pts (+81.7%)
  • those up in trip by 2f are 9/15 (60%) for 21pts (+140.2%)

He’s by Elusive Quality, whose offspring are 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 34.4pts (+60.4% ROI) on the Tapeta over the last two years, including…

  • 11/50 (22%) for 36.8pts (+73.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 40.9pts (+90.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 24.6pts (+87.7%) at Class 5
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 35.6pts (+131.8%) after a break of 3-20 days
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.8pts (+211.2%) in Wolverhampton handicaps, 3-20 after their last run
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.4pts (+306.3%) from LTO winners.

..giving us…a 1pt win bet on Elusive Cowboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available in at least a dozen places (so we should all get the same price!) at 5.45pm on Monday. However, if you’re able (and/or quick enough) Bet365 were offering 100/30 BOG and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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