Stat of the Day, 6th January 2017

Thursday’s Result :

2.00 Wolverhampton : Elusive Cowboy @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 9/4 Tracked leaders, chased clear leader 5f out until ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.45 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG


This 9 yr old gelding was a runner-up when last seen, 10 days ago and is also a former course and distance winner, so he should be comfortable enough with the task ahead.

He’s trained by Ron Hodges, whose runners are 32/314 (10.2% SR) for 164pts (+52.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps since 2008, with the following of particular relevance today…

  • those who last ran 4-75 days ago are 29/271 (10.7%) for 156.1pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 6 : 19/190 (10%) for 61.1pts (+32.1%)
  • during November to February : 20/163 (12.3%) for 178.2pts (+109.3%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 16/141 (11.4%) for 46.9pts (+33.3%)
  • over 5f : 5/44 (11.4%) for 48.3pts (+109.8%)
  • 9 to 11 yr olds : 4/32 (12.5%) for 29.22pts (+91.3%)

ALSO…Ron’s runners who finished in the first four home LTO, 4 to 15 days ago are 34/176 (19.3% SR) for 58.3pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2010, including…

  • 33/164 (20.1%) for 59.4pts (+36.2%) in handicaps
  • 24/87 (27.6%) for 77.8pts (+89.4%) 4-10 days since their last run
  • 12/61 (19.7%) for 31.5pts (+51.6%) at Class 6
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 58.1pts (+135.1%) on the A/W
  • 7/36 (19.4%) for 9pts (+25%) from LTO runners-up
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 37.9pts (+108.3%) over 5/5.5f
  • and 6/26 (23.1%) for 30.3pts (+116.6%) here at Wolverhampton

AND finally… this horse is top rated on the Geegeez Speed Ratings for this race (see here for details) and since Matt started to log the top rated 5f runners on the forum, 20 of 141 (14.2% SR) have won and you can read all about that right here. And further analysis shows that top-rated runners over 5f on the A/W have a 22% strike rate over the last 5yrs (175 winners from 794)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG which was available from both Bet365 and BetVictor at 5.35pm on Thursday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

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Here is today’s racecard

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