Stat of the Day, 7th January 2017

Friday’s Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG WON at 5/2 Chased leaders, went 2nd well over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by a neck.

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.05 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG


He might be 10 yrs old now, but he’s in good form, coming here off the back of a win last time out, 17 days ago.

He’s trained by Emma Lavelle, who is 17 from 89 (19.1% SR) for 22pts at an ROI of 24.7% here at Wincanton since 2010.

In addition to that, his case is strengthened by the fact that since 2010, in NH handicap chases, where the top weight is ridden by a 3lb claimer and remains top weight after all jockey claims are considered, there has been 90 winners from 486 (18.5% SR) for 56.4pts (+11.6% ROI) of level stakes profits, including…

  • 69/309 (22.3%) for 106.2pts (+34.4%) over trips of 2m2f to 3m1.5f
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 39pts (+44.9%) from LTO winners
  • 13/67 (19.4%) for 22.6pts (+33.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • and 3 from 15 (20%) for 14.1pts (+94%) here at Wincanton.

And finally, handicap chasers priced at 11/8 to 8/1, 11-25 days after a win LTO that was preceded by a run of 3 or more successive unplaced efforts are 108/442 (24.4% SR) for 103.8pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2010.

…which gives us…a 1pt win bet on Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betway, 32Red and 888 Sport at 6.25pm on Friday, although the last two are non-BOG.

There was plenty of 4/1 BOG available elsewhere though and in the interests of fairness and transparency, I’ll be settling up at 4/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.05 Wincanton

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Here is today’s racecard

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