Stat of the Day, 17th January 2017

Monday’s Result :

2.35 Plumpton : Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 Never fluent, mistakes 6th and next, held up well off the pace in rear, gained a place 10th, smooth headway tracking leaders next, 2nd going well before 2 out, upsides and hit 2 out, led between last 2, hit last, driven out to score by almost 3 lengths

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

3.30 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old might well have only won 3 times in his career, but generally races against younger horses, whereas the average age of this contest at just over 9 fits his profile better.

It’s also worth taking a quick look at his three previous wins, because…

  • all 3 came here at Ayr (2 on heavy ground, 1 on soft) in Class 4 handicap contests at odds of 6/1 and shorter. All came in the Jan-March period after a break of 10-40 days and when he was ridden by today’s jockey Brian Hughes in fields of less than 10 runners!

On top of that is the fact that since the start of 2011, horses competing in heavy ground handicap chases with at least 2 previous heavy ground wins from less than 10 attempts are 115 from 664 (17.3% SR) for 173.7pts (+26.2% ROI) with Class 4 contests supplying 40 winners from 173 (23.1%) for 87pts (+50.3%)

His trainer Iain Jardine doesn’t have that many NH runners here, but they are 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 10.37pts (+47.1% ROI) here since the start of 2015.

And the final piece of the puzzle is jockey Brian Hughes, who aside from his 3 wins on Plus Jamais here at Ayr, has 24 wins from 126 (19.1% SR) for 10.2pts (+8.1% ROI) profit at this venue over the last three years, of which…

  • chasers are 13/50 (26%) for 16.5pts (+33%)
  • Class 4 runners are 14/45 (31.1%) for 39.4pts (+87.5%)
  • and Class 4 chasers are 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.6pts (+125.3%)

…providing us with…a 1pt win bet on Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes, Marathon and Sky amongst others at 5.50pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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