Race of the Day – 13:35 Market Rasen
This is a handicap hurdle run over two miles and seven furlongs, with Wicked Willy the short priced favourite for Nigel Twisotn-Davies. He won a conditionals handicap last week, so is clearly in good form, and will take all the beating here today if he can see out the extra distance.
Sue Smith runs Mwaleshi in this and she has been in excellent form over the last couple of weeks. She’s had five winners from eleven runners (45.45%) for a level stakes profit of 14.75. Her horses are clearly in good order and it will be interesting if she can get this 12 year old to recapture some of his old form.
Mr Utah is a 16/1 chance, but he has slipped down the handicap to a mark which is six pounds below his last winning one, and when looking at the Instant Expert tab, he has three sections of green and one of amber. He hasn’t raced at the course before, but definitely has conditions in his favour and could run a big race at a nice price if he returns from an extended break well.
Grey Monk is also an outsider, but he has two sections of green and three of amber, showing a liking for the conditions he will face today.
The Pace tab shows us that leaders here over this distance generally do well, with a strike rate of 16.32%. Mid division runners are next best and also show a level stakes profit, however hold up horses have a poor record with just over 7% of them winning.
Mwaleshi and Grey Monk have the highest pace scores and appear likely to take them along, and as they have both won over this distance previously, I envisage them setting quite a strong pace to try and really push the favourite’s stamina.
Trainer Statistics is the free report to all users on a Wednesday, and it is excellent as highlighting where certain trainers do well.
Fergal O’Brien has a super record at Market Rasen over the past five years, with 17 winners (26.15%) and 29 places (44.62%) for level stakes profits of 63.50 and 73.41 respectively. He runs Three Of A Kind here today who is currently priced at around 9/1.
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