Race of the Day – 24 Jan

Race of the Day – 15:10 Southwell

This is a very good looking five furlong sprint on the all weather at Southwell, with not too many easily discounted on the face of it.

Speed Ratings become particularly relevant over the minimum trip, as it’s almost assured that it will be run at a true pace. Bowson Fred is rated clear of the rest on a mark of 105, and warrants a closer look with his current price around 14/1.

Lady Nayef is at the bottom of the weights, and she is chasing a four timer. Hollie Doyle’s five pound claim will surely be needed as she has taken quite a large rise in the weights, off the back of those three wins.

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The Shortlist is free for all users on a Tuesday, and on the ‘Place’ setting it highlights Bowson Fred as being well suited by today’s conditions, as he has a score of ten. He hasn’t raced here at Southwell before, but has been very consistent whenever he has encountered an artificial surface, so it appears likely he will be just as happy on this surface.

The favourite, Encore D’or, shows up nicely on the Instant Expert report on the ‘Win’ setting. He has three sections of green and is another who hasn’t race on this particular all weather surface. He is five pounds higher than for his last victory, but that doesn’t look insurmountable and he looks a big player here today.

Leaders here had a very useful record, with almost 23% of them going on to take the victory, for a level stakes profit of 197.01, from a sample of 486 runners. Therefore, coming from too far behind here makes it very tricky to win the race, as can be seen from just under 4% of held up horses winning.

Lady Nayef is usually quick away from the gate, and she will need to be as she’s drawn in stall ten, with low numbers here over this distance doing far better.

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