Stat of the Day, 26th January 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

3.40 Catterick : Herons Heir @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Held up, headway approaching 5th, led and jumped left from 3 out, clear next, ridden out to win by 6 lengths.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

3.20 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG


This 3yr old was a course and distance winner under today’s jockey when last seen. That was 16 days ago in a higher grade than today, but the caveat is that it was a seller as opposed to today’s handicap contest.

Trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Tony Hamilton don’t pair up here on the A/W at Southwell as often as I’d like to to see them, which is a pity as they’re 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+15.2% ROI), from which…

  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 10/52 (19.2%) for 30.7pts (+59%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/33 (24.2%) for 28.6pts (+86.7%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/29 (27.6%) for 29.6pts (+102.1%)

AND…3 yr olds running over 5/6f 6-20 dslr are 3/5 (60% SR) for 28pts (+560%)

Then we should look at another angle, perhaps? So if we take the following criteria : Fahey / handicappers / 2013 onwards / odds of 5-4 to 7-1 / previous C&D winners / LTO (anywhere) winners, we get 17 winners from 66 (25.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+22.4% ROI), including…

  • same C&D as LTO : 16/56 (28.6%) for 22.1pts (+39.5%)
  • 1-25 dslr : 17/50 (34%) for 30.8pts (+61.6%)
  • males are 11/44 (25%) for 18pts (+40.9%)
  • Class 5/6 = 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.5pts (+45.3%)
  • ridden by Tony Hamilton = 8/20 (40%) for 15.1pts (+75.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5pts (+62.5%)

AND…males at the same C&D as LTO, 1-25 dslr are 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 34pts (+121.3% ROI)

…and…a 1pt win bet on Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday (although bet365 were offering 3/1) and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.20 Southwell 

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Here is today’s racecard

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